000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091552
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized around the broad
low several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico..
Low pressure of 1005 mb is analyzed near 18N112W. Presently,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between
109W-115W, and also from 15N to 18N between 112W-115W. Winds of
20-30 kt, and seas to 12 ft are associated to this low pressure.
Any increase in organization of the thunderstorms could still
lead to the development of a short-lived tropical depression
today. By tonight, however, the system is expected to move west-
northwestward into a less favorable environment well west of the
coast of mainland Mexico. A Gale Warning remains in effect for 
the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico. There is a high chance of
tropical formation in the next 48 hours. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W north of 06N. It is 
moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is within 180 nm west of the wave from 06N to 13N. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm west of
the wave from 13N to 17N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 08N to 21N. This 
wave is co-located with EP93, discussed above. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N95W to EP93 near 
18N112W to 10N119W to 06N130W. The ITCZ extends from 06N130W to 
05N140W to beyond to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm S of the trough between 118W-128W, and within 60 nm 
S of the trough between 82W-84W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP93.

Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with 
gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere across the remainder of 
the Baja California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in 
the 6-8 ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In 
the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds 
prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft except to 5 ft in southerly 
swell across the entrance. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6
ft are found over the Tehuantepec region. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the
regional waters through early next week. Winds off of Baja
California Norte will pulse to fresh tonight. Showers and 
thunderstorms remain disorganized around the broad low several 
hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Any increase 
in organization of the thunderstorms could still lead to the 
development of a short-lived tropical depression today. By 
tonight, however, the system is expected to move west-
northwestward into a less favorable environment well west of the 
coast of mainland Mexico. A Gale Warning is in effect for the 
outer offshore waters W of 108W. Meanwhile, a trough of low 
pressure a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the early to middle portions of next week. The 
system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward, 
remaining well offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48
hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are 
noted elsewhere north of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds are found
south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft in decaying southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Low pressure is expected to form S of 
Tehuantepec early this week leading to freshening winds across 
the waters W of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong at night Mon through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 10247 mb high 
pressure center well N of the area near 34N138W. Gentle to 
moderate northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail north of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of about 120W. To the south of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S winds are noted. 
Swell from the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 
6-7 ft across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift slightly SE through 
Mon. This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to
moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 
Northerly swell in the waters N of 29N and E of 125W will 
combine with SE to E swell generated by EP93, across the waters E
of 125W Mon through Tue.

$$
Aguirre