000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 08 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): A large area of low pressure located several hundred miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to gradually become better organized. Low pressure of 1005 mb is analyzed near 16N109W. Presently, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the low in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 17N between 105W-116W, also from 09N to 15N between 100W-116W and within 60 nm of 08N118W. The most scatterometer pass showed winds of 20-30 kt to S of the low center from 15N to 16N between 108W-111W and removed to the NE of the low center from 18N to 21N between 106W-108w. Seas to 12 ft are within these areas of near- gale force winds. If the current trend continues with the low gradually becoming better organized, advisories will likely be initiated on this system later today or tonight. The low is expected to move generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few days. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 05N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W from 08N to 21N. This wave is co-located with EP93, discussed above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across northern Costa Rica and to 11N93W to low pressure (EP93) near 16N109W 1005 mb to 11N120W to 07N128W to 06N133W. The ITCZ extends from 06N133W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm N of the trough between 87W-93W, and within 60 nm N of the trough between 96W-99W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 94W-101W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information more on EP93. Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 5-7 ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft except to 5 ft in southerly swell across the entrance. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters N of Cabo Corrientes with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell. Light to gentle winds and seas of 6-7 ft are found over the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the regional waters through early next week. Winds off of Baja California Norte will pulse to fresh at night through the rest of the weekend. A large area of low pressure (EP93) located several hundred miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to gradually become better organized. Advisories will likely be initiated on this system later today or tonight. The low is expected to move generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few days. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the outer offshore waters W of 108W. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle portions of next week. The system is expected to move westward to westward to west-northwestward parallel to, but well offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This second system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted north of 02N, with seas of 6-7 ft in south-southwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds are found south of 02N, where seas are also 6-8 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the next several days. Southerly swell will subside a little across the regional waters Sun night. Low pressure is expected to form S of Tehuantepec late Sun or Mon leading to freshening winds across the waters W of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region starting Sun will pulse to strong at night Mon through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails north of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb surface high NW of the area near 33N133W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft in southerly swell prevail north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of about 120W. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S winds are noted. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 6-8 ft across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the northern waters through tonight, then shift slightly SE Sun through Mon. This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Northerly swell recently propagated into the waters N of 29N and E of 125W raising seas there to around 9 ft. The swell will then combine with SE to E swell generated by EP93, across the waters E of 125W Mon through Tue. $$ Aguirre