000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080830
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, are gradually becoming better organized. At this time,
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails from
09N to 19N between 102W and 113W. Latest scatterometer pass shows
winds of 20-30 kt SE of the low center. An overnight altimeter
pass shows seas to 12 ft within this area of near- gale force
winds. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form within the next day or so while the disturbance moves
generally west- northwestward, away from the coast of mainland
Mexico. In anticipation of this, a gale warning has been issued
for the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico. There is a high 
chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, moving westward at 10 
kt. Associated convection is described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W-108W from 07N to 20N. 
This wave is co-located with EP93, discussed above. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N55W to EP93 near 15.5N107.5W 
to 07N131W. The ITCZ extends from 07N131W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 16N
between 84W and 102W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection prevails from 09N to 19N between 102W and 113W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between
116W and 135W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on EP93. 

Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with 
gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere across the Baja California 
offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 5-7 ft range in a
mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf of California,
gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4
ft except to 5 ft in southerly swell across the entrance. Gentle
to moderate winds are noted elsewhere across the Mexico offshore
waters N of Cabo Corrientes with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 6-7 ft are found over the
Tehuantepec region.  

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the
regional waters through early next week. Winds off of Baja
California Norte will pulse to fresh at night through the
weekend. An elongated area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles SW of southwestern Mexico...EP93...continues to
become better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form
from this disturbance within the next day or so while it moves 
generally W-NW away from the coast of Mexico. Gale warnings are 
now in effect for the outer offshore waters W of 109.5W. A 
trough of low pressure located well south-southeast of 
southeastern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development during the next several days, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week. The 
system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward 
parallel to, but well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. 
This second system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 
hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted north of 02N, with seas of 6-7 
ft in south-southwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds are found 
south of 02N, where seas are 6-8 ft in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Southerly swell will subside across the 
regional waters today. Low pressure is expected to form S of 
Tehuantepec late Sun or Mon leading to freshening winds across 
the waters W of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
starting Sun will pulse to strong at night Mon through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N, anchored by a 1027 mb 
surface high near 39N147W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds 
and seas of 5-8 ft in southerly swell prevail north of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough west of 120W. To the south of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S winds are noted. Large swell
from the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 7-8 ft
across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the 
northern waters today, then shift slightly SE Sun through Mon. 
This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 
moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross- 
equatorial southerly swell in the southern waters will subside 
today. Northerly swell will move into the waters E of 125W today
to raise seas there to around 8 ft, then combine with SE to E 
swell generated by EP93, across the waters E of 130W on Mon and 
Tue.

$$
AL