000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071616
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico is starting to show signs of
organization. At this time, scattered to locally numerous
moderate to strong convection prevails from from 10N to 19N
between 101W and 111W. Seas to 10 ft are noted from 07N to 12N
between 100W and 110W. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the next couple of
days while it moves generally WNW away from the coast of Mexico.
There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48
hours. In anticipation of this, a gale warning has been issued
for the outer offshore waters in this area beginning Sat night.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A Caribbean tropical wave along 85W extends into the far eastern
Pacific Ocean, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Associated
convection is seen along the base of the wave and is described
below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 106W from 06N northward, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is moving into and area of
elongated low to mid level cyclonic turning, associated with
EP93. Associated convection is described below. 

A tropical wave previously analyzed along 114W has moved little
in the past 12 hours or so, and appears to be becoming absorbed
in an elongated low to mid level cyclonic circulation associated
with EP93. This wave has been removed from the 1200 UTC surface
analysis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 11N88W to 15.5N104W
to low pressure 1007 mb near 14.5N107W to 07N126W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N126W to 07.5N134W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 79W and 84W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 05N to 12N between 90W and 98W, from 10N to 19N 
between 101W and 111W, and within 210 nm along and S of trough 
and ITCZ between 110W and 133W. Scattered showers are noted 
within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 133W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of 18N. Moderate NW winds are noted in the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters with gentle to moderate NW winds
elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas range
5-7 ft in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf of
California, gentle southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4
ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the southern 
Mexico offshore waters with 6-8 ft seas in southerly swell. 
Scattered to locally numerous convection is noted in the 
offshore waters east of 112W associated to the monsoon trough, 
Special Feature EP93, and a tropical wave described above. Some 
of the stronger thunderstorms are producing strong gusty winds.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area
through early next week. Winds off of Baja California Norte will
continue to pulse to fresh at night through the weekend. A broad
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of SW 
Mexico is forecast become better organized through the weekend 
and a tropical depression will likely form while it moves WNW off
the coast of Mexico. Winds and seas will increase as the low 
develops. A gale warning has been issued across this area
beginning Sat night in anticipation of this formation. Another 
broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south 
of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual 
development of this system is possible while it moves westward. 
This second system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 
hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted north of 08N. Seas are peaking at 
6-7 ft this morning in strong southwest swell. Gentle to 
moderate SW winds are present south of 08N. Seas are 6-9 ft in 
southerly swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the 
coast of Colombia. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the 
next several days. Large southerly swell will subside tonight 
through Sat. Low pressure may for S of Tehuantepec late Sun or 
Mon leading to freshening winds across the waters W of 90W.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 10N, centered on a 1029 mb
surface high near 41N148W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds 
and seas of 5-8 ft due to a southerly swell prevail north of the
ITCZ and west of 115W. To the south of the ITCZ, moderate to 
fresh winds are noted. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere 
generating seas of 8-9 ft continues to propagate through the 
waters south of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the 
northern waters through the weekend. Gentle to moderate trade 
winds will prevail north of the ITCZ with seas in the 5-7 ft 
range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will in the southern
waters will subside through Sat. Seas will drop below 8 ft by 
early Sat outside of the area of low pressure described in the 
Special Features section above. 

$$
Stripling