000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060254
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A broad area of low pres located several hundred miles south of 
SW Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
currently. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression will likely form by this weekend while it moves 
generally WNW off the coast of mainland Mexico. There is a medium
chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high 
chance in the next 7 days. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave has its axis along 97W from 08N northward, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
within 50 nm of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 07N-20N, moving W 
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 50 nm 
of the wave's axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 08N126W. The ITCZ extends from 08N126W to beyond 
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 16N 
between 82W and 126W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle northwest winds
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas range 
5-6 ft in southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail with locally fresh winds in the 
northern Gulf. Seas range 2-4 ft. Light to gentle winds are 
noted across the southern Mexico offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas
in southerly swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted in 
the offshore waters east of 94W associated to a couple of 
tropical waves described above. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area. Winds
off of Baja California Norte are expected to become fresh by Thu
night and will continue through the weekend. Looking ahead, a 
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
SW Mexico is forecast become better organized this weekend and a
tropical depression will likely form while it moves WNW off the 
coast of mainland Mexico. Winds and seas will increase as the low
develops.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to 
gentle winds north of 05N. Seas range 5-6 ft due to a long- 
period southwest swell. Gentle to moderate south winds are 
present south of 05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell along 
the Panama and Colombia offshore waters. Swell continues across 
the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters with seas 7-8 
ft in southerly swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
noted across the Colombia and Ecuador offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Southerly swell with 9 ft seas will continue 
across the Galapagos Islands and offshore Ecuador through Thu, 
subsiding by Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 10N and west of 120W. Its 
associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle to moderate 
north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily due to a 
southerly swell north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. To the south
of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh winds are noted. Large swell from
the Southern Hemisphere generating seas of 8-9 ft is propagating
through the waters south of 10N between 81W and 122W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the 
northern waters through the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds will prevail north of the ITCZ with seas in the 5-7 
ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue to 
propagate across the waters to the south of 08N and between 
90W-140W over the next couple of days maintaining seas of 8-9 ft.
Most of the swell will subside by Friday.

$$
ERA