000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052109 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 96W from 08N northward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 50 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis along 105W from 07N to southern Mexico, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 50-100 nm of the wave's axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 13N105W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 16N between 78W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle northwest winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas range 5-6 ft in southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with locally fresh winds in the northern Gulf. Seas range 2-4 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted across the southern Mexico offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the offshore waters east of 94W associated to a couple of tropical waves described above. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area. Winds off of Baja California Norte are expected to become fresh by Thu night and will continue through the weekend. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression will likely form by this weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward, off the coast of mainland Mexico. There is a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds north of 05N. Seas range 5-6 ft due to a long- period southwest swell. Gentle to moderate south winds are present south of 05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell along the Panama and Colombia offshore waters. Swell continues across the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters with seas 7-8 ft in southerly swell. Strong thunderstorms are noted in the Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Colombia and Ecuador offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the next several days. Southerly swell with 8 ft seas will continue across the Galapagos Islands and offshore Ecuador through Thu, subsiding by Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails north of 10N and west of 120W. Its associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily due to a southerly swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh winds are noted. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere generating seas of 8-9 ft is propagating through the waters south of 10N between 81 and 120W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the northern waters through the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail north of the ITCZ with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the waters to the south of 08N and between 90W-140W over the next couple of days maintaining seas of 8-9 ft. Most of the swell will subside by Friday. $$ AReinhart