684 
AXPZ20 KNHC 042058
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is entering the Pacific Ocean and has an axis
along 88W from 08N to El Salvador, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 96.5W from 08N to southern 
Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 50 nm of the wave's axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 13N107W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N 
to 16N between 79W and 111W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle northwest winds
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas range 
5-6 ft, in southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-3 ft. Light 
to gentle winds are noted across the southern Mexico offshore 
waters with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted in the offshore waters of Oaxaca associated 
to a tropical wave described above. Scattered thunderstorms are 
also noted off the Michoacan and Jalisco offshore waters.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area.
Winds off of Baja California Norte will become fresh by Fri and
into the weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
likely to form several hundred miles off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development 
of this system and a tropical depression could form late this 
week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-
northwestward, away from the coast of mainland Mexico. There is a
low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance
in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas at 5-6 ft due to a long-period 
southwest swell prevail across the offshore waters north of 05N.
Gentle to moderate south winds are present south of 05N. Seas 
are 5-7 ft in southerly swell along the Panama, Colombia, and 
Ecuador offshore waters. Swell is increasing across the Galapagos
Islands, with seas 7-8 ft across those offshore waters. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the 
Colombia offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo at night through Wed night. Southerly swell with
8-9 ft seas will continue across the Galapagos Islands and
offshore Ecuador through Thu, subsiding by Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is present north of 15N and west of 120W. Its 
associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle to moderate 
north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily due to a 
southerly swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south 
of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh winds are noted. Large 
swell from the Southern Hemisphere generating seas of 8-9 ft is 
propagating through the waters south of 10N between 92W and 
120W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the 
northern waters through the middle part of the week. Gentle to
moderate trade winds will prevail north of the ITCZ with seas in
the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue
to propagate across the waters to the south of 08N and between 
90W-130W over the next couple of days maintaining seas of 8-9 ft.
Most of the swell will subside by Friday.

$$
AReinhart