000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041553
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave has its axis along 96W from 08N to southern 
Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 50 nm of the wave's axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 12N105W to 11N132W. The ITCZ extends from 11N132W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N 
to 17N between 77W and 123W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle northwest winds
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with locally 
moderate winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas range 5-6 ft, in 
southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-3 ft. Light to 
gentle winds prevail across the southern Mexico offshore waters 
with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted in the offshore waters of Oaxaca associated
to a tropical wave described above. Scattered thunderstorms are
also noted off the Michoacan and Jalisco offshore waters.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area. 
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is likely to form 
several hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a 
few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical 
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it
moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of formation 
in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas at 5-6 ft due to a long-period 
southwest swell prevail across the offshore waters north of 05N.
Gentle to moderate south winds are present south of 05N. Seas 
are 5-7 ft in southerly swell along the Panama, Colombia, and 
Ecuador offshore waters. Swell is increasing across the Galapagos
Islands, with seas 7-8 ft across those offshore waters. 
Scattered showers are noted across the Colombia offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo at night through Wed night. Southerly swell with
8-9 ft seas will continue across the Galapagos Islands and
offshore Ecuador through Thu, subsiding by Thu night into Fri.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The weak remnant low of former tropical cyclone Adrian is 
located near 20N122W with a pressure of 1011 mb. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted around the low. No significant 
convection is associated with this low. The low is forecast to 
continue weakening as it remains on a west- northwest motion, 
becoming a trough today.

High pressure is present north of 15N and west of 120W. Its 
associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle to moderate 
north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily due to a 
southerly swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south 
of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Large swell 
from the Southern Hemisphere generating seas of 8-9 ft is 
propagating through the waters south of 10N between 94W and 
120W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the 
northern waters through the middle part of the week. Gentle to
moderate trade winds will prevail north of the ITCZ with seas in
the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue
to propagate across the waters to the south of 08N and between 
90W-130W over the next couple of days maintaining seas of 8-9 ft.

$$
AReinhart