000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032038
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave has its axis along 93W from 05N to southern 
Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted 
within 50 nm of the axis of the wave from 05N to 15N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 13N112W to 11N129W. The ITCZ extends from 11N129W to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 15N between 88W and 123W and from 08N to 11N between 130W and
138W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro. This is producing light to 
gentle northwest winds across the Baja California offshore waters
with locally moderate winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas range 5-6
ft, mostly in southerly swell with NW swell in the northern Baja
California offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft. Light
to gentle winds prevail across the southern Mexico offshore 
waters with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the offshore waters of Oaxaca to Jalisco.
Some of these storms are producing gusty winds. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will develop over the 
central Gulf tonight and diminish by early Tue. Looking ahead, a 
broad area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred 
miles off the coast of southern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
gradual development of this system and a tropical depression 
could form late this week or over the weekend while it moves 
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern 
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. There is a low chance of 
formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas at 5-6 ft due to a long-period 
southwest swell prevail across the offshore waters north of 05N, 
while gentle to moderate south winds are present south of 05N. 
Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell along the Panama, Colombia, 
and Ecuador offshore waters. Swell is increasing across the 
Galapagos Islands, with seas 7-8 ft across those offshore 
waters. Scattered showers are noted across the Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo at night through Wed night. Southerly swell with
8-9 ft seas will continue across the Galapagos Islands and
offshore Ecuador through Thu, subsiding by Thu night into Fri.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

GOES-W satellite imagery shows that the remnant low of former 
tropical cyclone Adrian is located near 20N120W with a pressure 
of 1008 mb. The latest scatterometer data shows winds around the
low are moderate to fresh, especially in the northwest quadrant.
No significant convection is associated with this low anymore. 
The low is forecast to continue weakening as it remains on a 
west- northwest motion, becoming a trough by tonight into Tue 
morning.

High pressure is present north of about 17N and west of 120W. Its 
associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle to moderate north
to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily due to a 
southerly swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south 
of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds, with some areas seeing
locally fresh winds, are noted. Large swell from the Southern 
Hemisphere generating seas of 8-9 ft is propagating through the 
waters south of 12N between 92W and 135W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 
in place over the northern waters through the middle part of 
the week, while at the same time the cyclonic circulation of the
remnant low of Adrian continues to spin down. This should 
maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ 
with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell 
will continue to propagate across the waters to the south of 08N 
and between 89W-135W over the next couple of days maintaining 
seas of 8-9 ft.

$$
AReinhart