000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave has its axis along 92W from 05N to southern
Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted
within 50 nm of the axis of the wave from 06N to 14N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 09N105W to 11N129W. The ITCZ extends from 11N129W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
length of the monsoon trough from 02N to 14N. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 06N to 11N between
130W and 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro. This is producing light to 
gentle northwest winds along with seas of 4-6 ft primarily due to
a southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate
southerly winds prevail with locally fresh winds in the northern
Gulf. Seas range 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the
southern Mexico offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas in southerly
swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the off the
coast of Jalisco westward to the Oaxaca offshore waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will develop over the 
central Gulf tonight and diminish by early Tue. Looking ahead, a 
broad area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred 
miles off the coast of southern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
gradual development of this system and a tropical depression 
could form late this week or over the weekend while it moves 
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern 
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. There is a low chance of
formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft due to a long-period 
southwest swell prevail across the offshore waters north of 05N, 
while gentle to moderate south winds are present south of 05N.
Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell along the Panama, Colombia,
and Ecuador offshore waters. Swell is increasing across the
Galapagos Islands, with seas 8-9 ft across those offshore waters.
Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Colombia offshore
waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo at night through Wed night. Southerly swell with
8-9 ft seas will continue across the Galapagos Islands and
offshore Ecuador through most of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

GOES-W satellite imagery shows that the remnant low of former 
tropical cyclone Adrian is located near 20N119W with a pressure 
of 1008 mb. Winds around the low are likely moderate to fresh,
especially in the northwest quadrant. No significant convection
is associated with this low anymore. The low is forecast to 
continue weakening as it remains on a west- northwest motion, 
becoming a trough by tonight into Tue morning.

High pressure is present north of about 17N and west of 120W. Its 
associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle north to 
northeast winds and seas of 5-6 ft primarily due to a southerly 
swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south of the 
remnant low of Adrian, an area of fresh southwest winds is 
present from 10N to 13N between 115W-120W along with seas of 
6-8 ft. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere generating seas 
of 8-9 ft is propagating through the waters south of 07N between
85W and 130W. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 
in place over the northern waters through the middle part of 
the week, while at the same time the cyclonic circulation of the
remnant low of Adrian continues to spin down. This should 
maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N with 
seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will 
continue to propagate across the waters to the south of 08N and 
between 89W-135W over the next couple of days maintaining seas 
of 8-9 ft.

$$
AReinhart