000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030942
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 03 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave has its axis along 91W from 04N to 20N across 
western Guatemala and to the western section of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are east of the wave over northern Guatemala 
and Belize. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere 
east of the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 10N85W
to 09N93W to 08N102W and northwest to 14N113W to 13N122W to
11N130W to 09N135W, where latest scatterometer data indicates 
the ITCZ begins and continues to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 10N between
80W-85W and within 180 nm south of the trough between 110W-113W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of trough 
between 101W-106W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 
116W-122W and also within 60 nm of the trough between 132W-136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing light to gentle 
northwest winds along with seas of 4-6 ft primarily due to a 
southerly swell. Seas of 6-8 ft due to mix swell are over the 
offshore waters between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro. In the 
Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail 
with seas of 2-4 ft, except for higher seas of 4-6 ft near the 
entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the central Gulf 
tonight will diminish late. Moderate to fresh winds over the 
northern Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong late
tonight into early Tue. Looking ahead, a broad area of low 
pressure is likely to form several hundred miles off the coast of
southern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development 
of this system and a tropical depression could form late in the 
week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-
northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern 
coasts of Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft due to long-period
southwest swell prevail across the offshore waters north of 05N,
while gentle to moderate south winds are present south of 05N 
along with seas of 5-7 ft also due to long-period southwest 
swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail over the next several days. Winds and seas may
increase some across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador toward the end of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

GOES-W satellite imagery shows that the remnant low of former 
tropical cyclone Adrian is located near 20N119W with a pressure 
of 1007 mb. A recent overnight ASCAT pass revealed mainly fresh 
northwest to north winds over the western semicircle of the low, 
and a recent altimeter data pass revealed seas to 7 ft just east 
of the low. The satellite imagery reveals the remnant low as a 
broad cyclonic circulation that consists of broken to overcast 
low and middle level clouds covering the area from 16N to 23N 
between 114W-123W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible 
underneath these clouds, more with the low type clouds. The low 
is forecast to continue weakening as it remains on a west- 
northwest motion, with dissipation expected late Tue night.

High pressure is present north of about 17N and west of 120W. Its 
associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle north to 
northeast winds and seas of 5-6 ft primarily due to a southerly 
swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south of the 
remnant low of Adrian, an area of fresh southwest winds is 
present from 10N to 13N between 115W-120W along with seas of 
6-8 ft. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere generating seas 
of 8-9 ft is propagating through the waters south of a line from 
01S92W to 05N102W to 04N110W to 03S120W and south of 05N between 
120W and 130W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 
in place over the northern waters through the middle part of 
the week, while at the same time the cyclonic circulation of the
remnant low of Adrian continues to spin down. This should 
maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N with 
seas of and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly 
swell will continue to propagate across the waters to the south 
of 06N and between 92W-120W over the next couple of days 
maintaining seas of 8-9 ft.

$$
Aguirre