000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030806 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 03 2023

Corrected Tropical Waves section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected

A tropical wave has its axis along 90W north of 04N to across 
eastern Guatemala and to the south-central section of the 
Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms decreasing in coverage are 
from 10N to 13N between 90W-92W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are over some sections of Guatemala, Belize and 
the Yucatan Peninsula.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 10N85W
to 11N100W to 14N114W to 12N125W to 10N133W and to 07N136W, where 
latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and continues
to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from 07N to 10N between 80W-85W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between
108W-113W, and within 60 nm of trough between 131W-134W.
Scattered moderate is within 120 nm south of trough between
116W-120W, also between 126W-130W and within 60 nm north of 
trough between 112W-115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The earlier seen scattered shower and thunderstorm activity that
was over the southern section of Baja California have 
dissipated. It appears that some of the remnants of former 
tropical cyclone Beatriz assisted in enhancing this activity. 
Isolated showers are noted from 19N to 22N and between 107W-112W.

Weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
N of Cabo San Lazaro producing light to gentle northwest winds 
along with seas of 4-6 ft primarily due to a southerly swell. 
Seas of 6-8 ft due to mix swell are over the offshore waters 
between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro.  In the Gulf of 
California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas 
of 2-4 ft, except for higher seas of 4-6 ft near the entrance to
the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh winds are possible over the northern 
Gulf of California by Mon night. Looking ahead, a broad area of 
low pressure will likely form several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development 
of this system and a tropical depression could form late in the 
week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-
northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern 
coasts of Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft due to a southwest 
swell prevail across the offshore waters north of 05N, while 
gentle to moderate south winds are present south of 05N along 
with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail over the next several days. Winds and seas may
increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
toward the end of the upcoming week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

GOES-W satellite imagery shows that the remnant low of former 
tropical cyclone is located near 20N118W with a pressure of 1006
mb. An earlier ASCAT pass revealed mainly 20-25 kt winds within 
60 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrants and within 90 nm 
of the center in the NW quadrant. The imagery depicts the remnant
low as a large circulation that consists of broken to overcasts 
low and middle level clouds that cover the area from 15N to 23N 
and between 114W-123W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
underneath these clouds, more with the low type clouds. The low 
is forecast to continue weakening as it continues on a west- 
northwest motion, with dissipation expected late Tue night.

High pressure is present north of about 17N and west of 120W. Its 
associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle north to 
northeast winds and seas of 5-6 ft primarily due to a southerly 
swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south of the 
remnant low of Adrian, an area of fresh southwest winds is 
present from 10N to 13N between 115W-120W along with seas of 
6-8 ft. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere generating 
seas of 8-9 ft is moving through the waters south of a line from
03.4S92W to 02N101W to 03S110W to 02N119W to the Equator at 
120W, and also south of 03N between 120W-128W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 
in place over the northern waters through the middle part of 
the upcoming week, and while the cyclonic circulation of the
remnant low of Adrian continues to spin down. This should 
maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N
with seas of and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial 
southerly swell will continue to propagate across the waters to 
the south of 06N and between 92W and 120W over the next couple of
days sustaining seas of 8-9 ft.

$$
Aguirre