573 AXPZ20 KNHC 022123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Adrian degenerates into the remnant low and the National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on this system. At 02/2100 UTC, Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian is centered near 19.9N 117.5W moving WNW at 6 kt, and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west over the next day or two.. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of 20 to 25 kt winds within 60 nm NE and 90 nm NW quadrants of center while an altimeter pass indicates seas of 8 to 9 ft within about 90 nm NE quadrant of Adrian. Additional weakening is anticipated and the remnant low will likely dissipate in the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at wed-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Adrian Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W north of 04N to across northern Central America. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 85W and 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 10N97W to 07N110W. It resumes at 12N116W to 09N130W to 06N136W. The ITCZ extends from 06N136W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 04N to 09N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia, from 09N to 13N between 85W and 91W, from 10N to 15N between 102W and 111W, from 10N to 14N between 116W and 122W, and from 05N to 11N between 126W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... At 02/2100 UTC, the National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Adrian. Please, see the Special Features section above for more details. The remnant low of Beatriz is located about midway between the Tres Maria islands and Los Cabos. Some shower activity is noted in association with this system while scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing light to gentle NW winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in southerly swell. The offshore waters between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro are under the outer periphery of Adrian with a cyclonic wind flow and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian will become a remnant low and move to 20.2N 118.6W Mon morning, 20.3N 120.2W Mon afternoon, 20.3N 121.8W Tue morning, 20.2N 123.5W Tue afternoon, and dissipate Wed morning. Fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon night. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico during the middle to latter part of this week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression could form while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft in southwest swell prevail across the offshore waters N of 05N while gentle to moderate S winds are noted per scatterometer data S of 05N with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail over the next several days. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador toward the end of the work-week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Adrian degenerates into the remnant low. See the Special Features section above for more details. A ridge dominates mainly the waters N of 20N W of 120W supporting mostly gentle north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily in southerly swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south of Adrian, an area of fresh to locally strong SW winds with seas of 8 to 9 ft persists, covering mainly the waters from 10N to 14N between 112W and 120W based on scatterometer and altimeter data. Large swells from the Southern Hemisphere, with seas of 8 to 9 ft are affecting the waters south of a line from 03.4S92W to 02N100W to 02S105W to 02N112W to 04N120W, and S of 04N between 120W AND 132W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place over the N waters through mid-week while the cyclonic circulation of Adrian continues to weaken. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N, and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the waters S of 05N between 92W and 120W over the next 24-36 hours, building seas to 7 to 9 ft. $$ GR