945 AXPZ20 KNHC 021553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Adrian is centered near 19.5N 116.7W at 02/1500 UTC moving WNW or 290 degrees at 6 kt, and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west over the next day or two. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Adrian is nearly post-tropical, having produced no deep convection for about 8 hours. Post-tropical transition will likely conclude later today since the depression is moving over cooler waters. As a result, Adrian is forecast to become a remnant low later today. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at wed-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.D. Adrian Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 87W north of 04N to across northern Central America. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are along and ahead of the wave axis from 03N to 10N between 86W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 11N90W to 09N102W. It resumes at 12N118W to 09N130W to 05N137W. The ITCZ extends from 05N137W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 08N E of 82W to the coast of Colombia, from 03N to 10N between 86W and 90W, from 09N to 15N between 90W and 112W, from 10N to 12N between 116W and 130W, and from 04N to 08N between 127W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Adrian. The remnant low of Beatriz is located about midway between the Tres Maria islands and Los Cabos. Some shower activity is noted in association with this system while scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over the southern Gulf of California. Weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing light to gentle NW winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in southerly swell. The offshore waters between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro are under the outer periphery of Adrian with a cyclonic wind flow and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Adrian will become a remnant low and move to 19.9N 117.7W this evening, 20.1N 119.3W Mon morning, 20.1N 120.9W Mon evening, 20.0N 122.4W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. Fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon, becoming strong by mid-week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico during the middle to latter part of week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft in southwest swell prevail across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through mid week across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Adrian. A ridge dominates mainly the waters N of 20N W of 120W supporting mostly moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. An area of moderate to fresh winds is noted to the south of Adrian along with seas to 8 ft. This area of winds is expected to diminish this afternoon as Adrian weakens further while tracking westward. Large swells from the Southern Hemisphere, with seas of 8 to 9 ft are affecting the waters S of 00N W of 110W, and S of 02S between 105W and 110W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place over the N waters through mid-week while the cyclonic circulation of Adrian continues to weaken. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N, and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the waters S of 05N between 92W and 120W over the next 24-36 hours, building seas to 7 to 9 ft. $$ GR