000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011510 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Adrian is centered close to Clarion Island near 18.3N 114.5W at 01/1500 UTC, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the center, and this extent continues to diminish as Adrian moves into cooler waters west of Clarion Island. Combined seas to 12 ft extend up to 90 nm in the eastern semicircle of Adrian, and up to 60 nm in the western semicircle. Swells generated by Adrian are affecting portions of the west- central coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next couple of days as Adrian continues westward into cooler waters, and it is forecast to become post- tropical on Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Beatriz is centered near 20.4N 105.9W at 01/1500 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are noted within 30 nm of the center, with another area of convection extending 90 nm to the southwest of the center in the an are of SW winds converging into the storm. Tropical storm conditions along the west-central coast of Mexico are forecast to diminish this afternoon as Beatriz begins to move away from the area. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western Mexico from Colima northwestward to Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Beatriz are forecast to spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Beatriz will gradually weaken as it moves from the Cabo Corrientes area past the Tres Marias Islands late today and tonight, before downgraded to remnant low with 30 kt winds off Los Cabos by early Mon. This remnant low is expected to dissipate west of Los Cabos Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the eastern Pacific, currently passing through central Panama along 81W, at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident where the tropical wave interacts with the monsoon trough, specifically from 04N to 08N between 77W and 85W. A tropical wave has its axis along 138W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. This wave most likely become undefined later today and dropped from the surface analysis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N79W to 08N105W to 08N103W. It resumes at 11N120W to 09N127W to 07N135W to 05N136W. The ITCZ extends from 05N136W to 04N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 77W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is noted within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough between 85W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian and Tropical Storm Beatriz. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, other than the impacts from Adrian and Beatriz already described in the Special Features section, fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon, becoming strong by mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft in southwest swell prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through mid week across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian. A ridge extends from a strong 1029 mb high pressure centered well north of the area near 40N138W to Baja California. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, with seas generally of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken slightly through Sun as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N, and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Fresh southwest winds south of Adrian from 10N to 15N between 110W-120W will shift west- northwestward with Adrian leading to seas that could reach 8 ft, but this will diminish through Sun as Adrian weakens. New moderate-sized south- southwest swell will cross the equator through Sun night, building seas to 7-9 ft east of 120W and south of 03N. $$ Christensen