000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011040 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1040 UTC Sat Jul 01 2023 Updated Special Features section for Beatriz Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated Hurricane Adrian is centered near 18.1N 114.0W at 01/0900 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone's overall structure has continues to deteriorate overnight. Convection has diminished during the overnight. The satellite imagery reveals Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and also within 60 nm of 19N114W. Adrian is forecast to gradually turn westward during the next couple of days. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next couple of days and Adrian is forecast to become post- tropical on Sun. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 180 nm of the center. Swells generated by Adrian are affecting portions of the west-central coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Beatriz is centered near 19.4N 105.1W at 01/0900 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Latest satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has lost organization of its overall cloud pattern. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the western semicircle. Storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches, is expected across portions of southern and western Mexico from Colima northwest to Sinaloa and Durango in association with Beatriz through Monday This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Beatriz are forecast to spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. A decrease in the forward speed of Beatriz is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move near or over portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this morning. Beatriz is then expected to move away from the west-central coast of Mexico later today into Sun. It is expected to weaken to a tropical depression near 22.6N 109.3W Mon afternoon, and dissipate late Mon night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 137W/138W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. This wave most likely become undefined today and dropped from the surface analysis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N79W to 08N90W to 08N103W. It resumes at 14N117W to 09N127W to 07N135W to 05N136W. The ITCZ extends from 05N136W to 04N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 80W-83W, also from 05N to 09N between 87W-91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 05N between 95W-100W and from 08N to 10N between 118W-122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian and on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Beatriz. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, Beatriz is forecast to move near or over portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this morning. Beatriz is then expected to move away from the west-central coast of Mexico later today into Sun. Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Manzanillo to Punta Mita Mexico and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for North of Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico Las Islas Marias. Elsewhere, fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon, becoming strong by mid week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft in southwest swell prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through mid week across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian. A ridge extends from a strong 1030 mb high pressure centered well north of the area near 40N138W to Baja California. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, with seas generally of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken slightly this weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N, and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Strong southwest monsoonal winds between 106W-115W will shift west-northwestward with Adrian leading to seas that could reach 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized south-southwest swell will cross the equator through Sun night building seas to 7-9 ft east of 120W and south of 03N. $$ Aguirre