000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Adrian is centered near 17.3N 112.2W at 30/1500 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 300 nm of the center. Adrian will move close to Clarion Island early Sat, then weaken to a tropical storm as it moves west of the area Sat evening, before weakening to a remnant low late Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Recently upgraded Hurricane Beatriz is centered near 17.3N 102.3W at 30/1500 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 60 nm in the NE semicircle of Beatriz, within gale force winds funneling along the coast. Beatriz will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 102.7W this afternoon, then move to 18.7N 104.4W Sat morning. Hurricane Beatriz will be near 20.0N 106.0W Sat afternoon, 21.0N 107.3W Sun morning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N 108.4W Sun afternoon. Tropical Storm Beatriz will be near 22.1N 109.2W Mon morning. Beatriz will change little in intensity as it moves near the southern tip of Baja California early Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 134W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N97W and from 14N115W to 07N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N west of 85W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian and Tropical Storm Beatriz. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, Beatriz had intensified to hurricane strength, bringing a risk of hurricane- force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas late today through Sat. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Interests near Clarion Island should monitor the movement of Hurricane Adrian, expected to move close to the island late today through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 89W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters E of 90W. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and move into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador, and the Galapagos Islands this evening into Sat, followed by another pulse of SW swell Sun into Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian. A ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 40N139W to Baja California. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 ft N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas generally of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted S of Adrian from 10N to 14N between 107W and 115W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds between 106W and 115W will shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate- sized SW swell will cross the equator through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ Christensen