000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Adrian is centered near 16.4N 110.7W at 29/2100 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident with 270 nm SW and 90 nm NW semicircles. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 180 nm of the center. Adrian will move to 16.8N 111.7W Fri morning, 17.2N 113.0W Fri afternoon. Adrian will weaken to a tropical storm close to Clarion Island near 17.6N 114.2W Sat morning, then move to 18.0N 115.2W Sat afternoon, then continue farther west of the area and weaken to a remnant low by Sun afternoon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web- site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Adrian Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Beatriz is centered near 15.0N 99.4W at 29/2100 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active within 180 nm SE and 120 nm NW semicircles. Rough seas are noted within 60 nm on in the NE quadrant of Beatriz, within gale force winds funneling along the coast. Beatriz will move to 15.9N 100.7W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.2N 102.4W Fri afternoon, then continue to 18.7N 104.1W Sat morning. Beatriz will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.0N 105.7W Sat afternoon, then move to 20.8N 106.7W Sun morning, and 21.6N 107.6W Sun afternoon. Beatriz will weaken to a remnant low near Los Cabos by late Mon. Refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.D. Two-E Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 130W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N90W, and from 13N117W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 90W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Heavy rainfall is likely ongoing over the coastal terrain of Guerrero and Michoacan currently as Tropical Storm Beatriz develops offshore. Meanwhile, Hurricane Adrian is moving toward the Revillagigedo Islands currently, with strong E winds starting near Socorro Island. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, Beatriz is expected to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane on Fri, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas Fri and Sat. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Interests near Clarion Island should monitor the development and movement of Hurricane Adrian, expected to move close to the island late Fri through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 88W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters E of 90W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region tonight into Fri before diminishing, as low pressure becomes better organized SW of Tehuantepec and moves westward. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and move into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri evening through Sat, followed by another pulse of SW swell early Sun through Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 32N140W to Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 ft N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas generally of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted SW of Adrian from 10N to 14N between 107W and 115W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds between 106W and 115W will shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate- sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ Christensen