000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Adrian is centered near 16.0N 110.3W at 29/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of center. Rough to very rough seas extend to 120 nm of the center. Andrian will be near Clarion Island by Fri night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web- site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Adrian Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Two-E is centered near 14.6N 98.8W at 29/1500 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Two-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.4N 100.2W this evening, move to 16.5N 101.9W Fri morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 103.8W Fri evening. Two-E will move off Cabo Corrientes near 19.3N 105.6W by Sat morning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 106.8W Sat evening, and 21.4N 107.9W Sun morning. Two-E will change little in intensity as it moves to the south of Los Cabos early Mon. Tropical Depression Two-E (EP02): Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in organization about an area of low pressure off of the Mexican coast SW of Puerto Angel tonight, and a new T.D. has formed. T.D. Two-E is located near 14N 97.8W 1006 mb at 0900 UTC moving W-NW at 12 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 11.5N between 92W and 100.5W. Strong E to SE winds to 30 kt are occurring within 180 nm of the coast of Mexico south to southwest of Puerto Angel where seas are likely 8 to 11 ft. Two-E is expected to continue on a W-NW track and intensify to a tropical storm this afternoon, then move along or just offshore of the coast of SW Mexico through Sat before turning more NW towards Baja Sur. Two-E is expected to reach hurricane strength Sat afternoon near the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the coastal zones from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. Refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.D. Two-E Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 129W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and S of the monsoon trough between 125W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N85W 11N93W, and from 13B117W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 80W and 93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Adrian remains a hurricane, moving slowly W-NW and will maintain this track, moving across the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico through Sat. Large S to SW swell generate from Adrian will build across the offshore waters from Guerrero to Las Tres Marias this morning and then spread into the water of the southern Gulf of California and Baja Sur tonight through Fri. Behind Adrian, T.D. Two-E will move near or along the coast of SW Mexico today through Sat spreading tropical storm conditions and high seas across the near shore waters, accompanied by numerous strong thunderstorms and very heavy rain. Elsewhere to the NW, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area. In the Gulf California, moderate south to southwest winds prevail. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. The ridge centered to the NW will gradually weaken into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This will allow Adrian to eventually move more NW and for T.D. Two-E to eventually turn NW into open waters Sun through Mon. Large swell from both systems will dominate the waters south of Baja California Sur through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 88W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters E of 90W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region this morning, then mainly moderate winds will prevail. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri evening through Sat, followed by another pulse of SW swell early Sun through Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located NW of the area near 33N137W, dominates the waters N of 10N W of 115W. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ to about 24N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas generally of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted SW of Adrian from 10N to 14N between 107W and 115W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place today, then weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds between 106W and 115W will shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ Christensen/Stripling