000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Adrian (EP01) appears to be maintaining it's intensity this evening while moving slowly westward. At 0300 UTC, Adrian is centered near 15.4N 109W moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure remains 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. On the forecast track, a slow motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected during the next few days. Some minor strengthening is forecast into Thursday, then weakening is likely to begin Thursday night or Friday. Seas to 12 ft are expected within 210 nm NE semicircle, 180 nm NW and 75 nm SW quadrants, with maximum seas estimated at 26 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 60 nm S of center, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 10.5N to 17.5N between 104W and 112W. Swell associated with Adrian will move into the offshore waters of Cabo Corrientes, Las Tres Marias Islands and Baja California Sur Thu through Fri night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at wed-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S. Bret Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E (EP02): Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase about an elongated area of low pressure off of the Mexican coast south of Puerto Angel this evening. Low pressure of 1007 mb is analyzed near 13N96.5W moving W-NW at 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that this system is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical cyclone is expected to develop from this system with the next 24 hours or so, as it moves W-NW and near the coast of Mexico. Strong E to SE winds are occurring within 180 nm of the coast of Mexico south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Puerto Angel. Currently, Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 09N between 94W and 99W. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the waters and coastlines from Oaxaca to Colima. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both of these features. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 96W-97W, from 06N northward into the Bay of Campeche. A 1007 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 13N96.5W, moving WNW at 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 09N between 94W and 99W. See the Special Features section above for more information on this feature. A tropical wave is analyzed along 129W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of the monsoon trough between 123W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N72W to 08N79W to 1007 mb low pres located near 13N96.5W, then resumes W of Adrian near 14.5N113.5W to 07N131W. The ITCZ continues from 07N131W to beyond 05N140W. Aside for the convection associated with Hurricane Adrian, scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 09N between 94W and 99W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm S of the coastlines between 79W and 93.5W, from 08N to 14.5N between 113W and 120W, and within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 119W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Adrian remains a hurricane this evening, moving slowly W-NW and will maintain this track, moving across the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico through Sat. Large S to SW swell generate from Adrian will build across these waters tonight through Fri then spread as moderate-sized swell into the waters of Baja California. Behind this system, 1007 mb low pressure near 13N96.5W is gaining improved organization this evening, and conditions are favorable for a tropical storm to develop within the next 24 hours or so, as it moves W-NW along or very near the coast of SW Mexico. Presently, this system is expected to pass very near the coast of Colima and Jalisco Fri night and Sat before veering more NW. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued by the Government of Mexico. Due to this close trajectory along or near the coast, the strongest winds and seas will be seen in the nearshore waters within 150 nm of the coasts through Sat. See the special features section above for more information. Elsewhere to the NW, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area. In the Gulf California, afternoon scatterometer data indicate mainly moderate southerly winds across the central and south parts of the Gulf while mainly light winds are noted over the northern Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. The ridge centered to the NW will gradually weaken into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This will allow Adrian to eventually move more NW and for the developing tropical cyclone S of Puerto Angel to eventually turn NW into open waters on Sat. Large swell from both systems will dominate the waters south of Baja California Sur through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 11N87W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters E of 90W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong Ne to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight, then mainly moderate winds will prevail. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri night through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure located NW of the area near 32N136W, dominates mainly the waters N of 20N W of 115W. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ to about 15N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas generally of 4 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted SW of Adrian from 10N to 14N between 110W and 116W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place through Thu, then weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds will persist between 100W and 118W through Thu, and shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri night through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ Stripling