000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Adrian is upgraded to hurricane status at 28/1500
UTC. At this time, it is centered near 15.2N 108.0W moving W at 
7 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in 
forward speed is forecast on Friday. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with 
gusts to 80 kt. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days. Weakening is expected to begin by late 
Friday. Seas to 12 ft are expected within 180 nm E semicircle, 
120 nm NW and 45 nm SW quadrants, with maximum seas estimated at 
22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 
nm of center, while scattered moderate to strong convection is 
elsewhere from 10N to 14N between 105W and 111W. Swell associated
with Adrian will move into the offshore waters of Las Tres Marias
and Baja Sur Thu night through Fri night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National 
Hurricane Center at wed-site 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Bret Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details. 

Invest Area (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to 
show signs of organization in association with a broad area of 
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and southern Mexico. Continued development of this 
system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern
coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of 
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours, and through 7 days.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both of these features.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 95W, from 05N northward into 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1008 mb low pressure is along the wave
axis near 11N95W, moving WNW at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 92W and 
100W. See the Special Features section above for more information
on this feature.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 126W from 05N to 15N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
meets the monsoon trough. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from western Panama near 08.5N81W to 
1008 mb low pres located near 11N95W, then resumes W of Adrian 
near 14N111W to 11N120W to 06N132W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N132W to beyond 04N140W. Aside for the convection associated
with Hurricane Adrian and low pressure near 11N95W, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N E of
80W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 11N between 111W and 120W, within 180 nm SE of
the monsoon trough between 120W and 127W, and within 90 nm S of
the ITCZ between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Adrian rapidly intensifies into a hurricane. Please, refer to 
the Special Features section above for more details.

A broad surface ridge persists across the region, extending 
southeastward across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California, and is supporting fresh northerly winds and 6 to 9 
ft seas across the Baja California offshore waters north of 25N. 
In the Gulf of California, light to moderate southerly winds 
generally prevail. Seas across the southern Gulf are up to 5 ft.
Winds are generally light to moderate elsewhere N of 19N, with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds associated 
with Hurricane Adrian will likely reach the Revillagigedo 
Islands on Thu. 

Hurricane Adrian will move to 15.4N 109.3W this evening, 15.6N 
110.8W Thu morning, 15.8N 112.0W Thu evening, 16.1N 113.2W Fri 
morning, 16.4N 114.3W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical storm
near 16.8N 115.3W Sat morning. Adrian will change little in 
intensity as it moves to near 17.4N 116.7W early Sun. Elsewhere,
the surface ridge across the baja offshore waters will weaken 
modestly through mid-week as high pressure reorganizes farther NW
of the area. Fresh winds will continue N of Punta Eugenia through
Thu. Pulsing fresh southerly winds expected across the south and
central Gulf of California during overnight hours. Another low 
pressure may become more organized offshore of Guatemala through 
Wed night and move west-northwestward just offshore of the 
Tehuantepec region Wed night, then parallel to the coast of SW 
Mexico Thu through early Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail 
across the offshore waters E of 90W. To the W, fresh to locally 
strong SE winds associated with a tropical wave and broad low 
pressure prevail from offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca to the 
Tehuantepec region. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area, with 
scattered active thunderstorms. Across the offshore waters of 
Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, moderate S to SW winds 
and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters E of 90W 
through mid-week, except moderate to fresh offshore winds across 
the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from Colombia, 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW 
winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during 
the period. Low pressure may become more organized offshore of  
Guatemala tonight through Wed. Gradual development of this system
is expected during the next several days, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly 
parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. 
Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator
and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
Fri night through Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Adrian rapidly intensifies into a hurricane. Please, refer to 
the Special Features section above for more details.

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered NW of the area near 32N138W
and extends a broad surface ridge southeastward to offshore of 
Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient to the south of the 
ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds 
and 7 to 8 ft seas from 10N to 15N W of 125W. Gentle winds and 4
to 5 ft seas prevail north of 26N west of 130W. Moderate to 
fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted SW of
Adrian from 10N to 14N between 107W and 112W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place through
Thu, then weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high
pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 
6 to 8 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds will persist between 
100W and 118W through Thu, and shift W-NW with Adrian, generating
seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will 
cross the equator Fri night through Sat night and raise sea 
heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N.

$$
GR