000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281000 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 15.3N 107.6W at 0900 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas to 12 ft are expected within 180 nm NE semicircle, 120 nm NW and 30 nm SW quadrants, with maximum seas estimated at 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 14N between 105W and 111W. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Adrian is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday afternoon as it moves westward, then begins to veer W-NW across the far outer offshore waters of SW Mexico. Associated large SE swell will move into the offshore waters of Las Tres Marias and Baja Sur Thu night through Fri night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. South of Southern Mexico and Central America: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala, where a 1009 mb surface low is analyzed tonight near 10.5N94W, and is producing a broad and disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, and roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both of these features. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 92W, from 05N northward into southeastern Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pres is ahead of the wave near 10.5N94W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 09N between 90W and 97W. See the special features section above for more information on this feature. A tropical wave is analyzed along 124W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 10 kt. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is now along the monsoon trough related to this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 1009 mb low pres near 10.5N94W to 13N100W, then resumes W of T.S. Adrian near 12N113W to 06.5N129W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N129W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 120 nm of the Pacific coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 09N between 86W and 97W, and from 11N to 16N between 97W and 103W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 106W and 116W, and within 60 nm either side of the trough between 116W and 125W and between 134W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the now T.S. Adrian, centered near 15.3N 106.0W. A broad surface ridge persists across the region, extending southeastward to near Cabo San Lucas, and is supporting fresh northerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the Baja California offshore waters north of 25N. In the Gulf of California, light to moderate southerly winds generally prevail. Seas across the and southern Gulf are up to 5 ft. Winds are generally light to moderate elsewhere N of 19N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds associated with T.S. Adrian are occurring from about 60 nm offshore of SW Mexico, and increase to tropical storm strength near the center of Adrian. Seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail well to the NE of Adrian, and increase to near 18 ft NE of the center. Tropical Storm Adrian near 15.3N 107.6W 994 mb at 0900 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Adrian will move on a general westward track through late Thu, reaching near 15.4N 108.9W Wed afternoon as a hurricane, reach near 15.8N 111.5W Thu afternoon, near 16.2N 113.8W Fri afternoon, then turn more NW and begin to weaken slightly. Adrian is expected to weaken to a tropical storm near 17.1N 115.9W on Sat night. Elsewhere, the surface ridge across the baja offshore waters will weaken modestly through mid-week as high pressure reorganizes farther NW of the area. Fresh winds will continue N of Punta Eugenia through Thu. Pulsing fresh southerly winds expected across the south and central Gulf of California during overnight hours. Another low pressure may become more organized offshore of Guatemala through Wed night and move west- northwestward just offshore of the Tehuantepec region Wed night, and move west-northwestward just offshore of the Tehuantepec region Wed night, then parallel to the coast of SW Mexico Thu through early Sat, then turn NW toward Baja Sur. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters E of 90W. To the W, fresh to locally strong SE winds associated with a tropical wave and broad low pressure prevail from offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca to the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area, with scattered active thunderstorms. Across the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters E of 90W through mid-week, except moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Low pressure may become more organized offshore of Guatemala tonight through Wed. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri night through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on T.S. Adrian and the tropical waves moving across the area. High pressure of 1025 mb is centered NW of the area near 34N138W and extends a broad surface ridge southeastward to offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas from 09N to 26N and west of 120W. Gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 26N west of 130W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted SW of T.S. Adrian from 08N to 14N between 104W and 118W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place through Thu, then weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds will persist between 100W and 118W through Thu, and shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri night through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ Stripling