000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280350 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 15.3N 106.7W at 0300 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas to 12 ft are expected within 60 nm NE semicircle and 15 nm NW quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12.5N to 16N between 105W and 108.5W, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 09.5N to 16.5N between 103W and 111W. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Adrian is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday morning as it moves westward. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. South of Southern Mexico and Central America: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala, where a 1009 mb surface low is analyzed tonight near 09.5N93.5W, and is producing a broad and disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, and roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both of these features. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 91W, from 04N northward into the central Yucatan Peninsula, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pres is ahead of the wave near 09.5N93.5W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 07N between 89W and 99W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 123W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 10 kt. No convection is related to this wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 1009 mb low pres near 09.5N93.5W to 13N100W, then resumes W of T.S. Adrian near 12N113W to 06N127W. The ITCZ continues from 06N127W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 07N between 88W and 99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 113.5W and 117W, and within 90 nm S of the trough between 111W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the now T.S. Adrian, centered near 15.3N 106.0W. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to near Cabo San Lazaro, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the Baja California offshore waters north of 24N. In the Gulf of California, light to moderate southerly winds generally prevail. Seas across the and southern Gulf are up to 5 ft. Winds are generally light to moderate elsewhere N of 19N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds associated with T.S. Adrian are occurring from about 90 nm offshore of SW Mexico, and increase to tropical storm strength near the central of Adrian. Seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail well to the NE of Adrian, and increase to near 15 ft NE of the center. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Adrian near 15.3N 106.7W 997 mb at 0300 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Adrian will move on a general westward track through early Thu, reaching near to 15.3N 108W Wed morning as a hurricane, reach near 15.5N 110.8W Thu morning, near 15.8N 113.3W Fri morning, then turn more NW and begin to weaken slightly. Adrian is expected to weaken to a tropical storm near 16.6N 115.1W on Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, the surface ridge across the baja offshore waters will weaken modestly through mid-week as high pressure reorganizes farther NW of the area. Fresh to strong winds will continue N of Punta Eugenia through Wed. Pulsing fresh southerly winds expected across the south and central Gulf of California during overnight hours. Another low pressure may become more organized offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala on Wed and move west-northwestward just offshore of the Tehuantepec region Wed night and Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters E of 88W. To the W, fresh to locally strong SE winds associated with a tropical wave and broad low pressure prevail to the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area, with scattered active thunderstorms. Across the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters E of 90W through mid-week, except moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Low pressure may become more organized offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala tonight through Wed. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri night through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on T.S. Adrian and the tropical waves moving across the area. High pressure of 1026 mb is center NW of the area near 34N138W and extends a broad surface ridge southeastward to offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas from 08N to 25N and west of 120W. Gentle northerly winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 25N west of 130W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted just SW of T.S. Adrian from 07N to 14N between 102W and 118W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will drift southward and weaken through Wed, as the anchoring high pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds will persist between 100W and 118W through Thu, and shift W-NW with Adrian through Thu, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri night through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ Stripling