000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252112
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 89W and N of 04N, moving 
W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 02N to 11N
between 85W and 91W. 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 106W from 05N to 15N, moving W
at 10 kt. A 1011 mb low pres is centered along the wave axis 
near 12N106W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 10N to
18N between 103W and 110W.

Another tropical wave is analyzed along 130W from 04N to 15N, 
and moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with 
this wave. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N127W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N131W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the 
convection described in the section above, scattered moderate 
convection prevails from 06N-18N and E of 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to
near 19N110W, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds 
and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters north of 
Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, while light to gentle
southerly winds generally prevail. Seas across the central Gulf 
are up to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
prevail across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. Hazy 
conditions are expected across the waters of southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will dominate the 
offshore waters W of 100W through Mon night before weakening 
modestly. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a 
meandering trough over western Mexico will support pulsing fresh 
to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this 
period. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere, except 
pulsing fresh southerly winds across the central Gulf of 
California during overnight hours beginning Mon. A broad area of 
low pressure is likely to develop on Tue offshore of southern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions still appear generally 
favorable for gradual development of this broad system. A tropical 
depression is likely to form during the middle part of this week as 
the system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. At this time, gale-force winds are
expected with this low beginning on Wed night through the end of
the week across the offshore waters of West Central Mexico. 
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail 
across the offshore waters S of 10N. Across the offshore waters 
of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S 
to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central
America into early next week, except moderate to fresh offshore 
winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from 
Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S 
to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected 
during the period. Low pressure may form offshore of El Salvador 
and Guatemala Tue or Wed. Some gradual development of this system
is possible thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, 
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

A 1025 mb high pressure center near 30N131W anchors a broad 
surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas 
from 10N to 25N and west of 115W. Gentle northerly winds and 3 
to 6 ft seas prevail north of 25N west of 125W. Light to gentle 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in SW swell are noted from S of 10N and
W of 102W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward
and weaken tonight and Mon, then reorganize to the NW by mid- 
week. This should maintain moderate to fresh trade winds S of 
25N, and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. New moderate-sized SW swell
will move through the equatorial waters tonight and Sun before 
decaying Mon. A strong SW monsoonal winds will develop between 
100W and 110W from Mon night through Thu, and shift W-NW through
Thu, generating seas to 8 ft.

$$
ERA