000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250327
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has entered the far eastern Pacific along 85W, 
northward of 04N, moving W near 10 kt. Associated convection 
occurring ahead and behind the wave is described below.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 102W from 16N southward, 
moving W 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen
from 07N to 09N between 98W and 104W, and within 90 nm of the
coasts between 90W and 102.5W.

Another tropical wave is analyzed axis along 127W from 15N 
southward, and moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is 
noted with this wave. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 12.5N99W to 11.5N119W to 
08.5N128W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N128W to 06.5N137W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of
02.5N and E of 82W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 03N to 10.5N between 82W and 93W,
and also from 06N to 12.5N between 106W and 118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to
near 19N113W, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds 
and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters north of 
Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate N 
winds prevail across the central section, while light to gentle 
southerly winds are noted over southern portions. Seas across 
the central Gulf are up to 3 ft, and 2 ft or less elsewhere. 
Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the 
remaining Mexican offshore waters. Hazy conditions are expected 
across the coastal sites across southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge centered well NW of 
the area will dominate the offshore waters W of 100W through Mon
before weakening modestly. A tight pressure gradient between the
ridge and a meandering trough over western Mexico will support 
pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward 
during this period. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere, except pulsing fresh northerly winds across the 
central Gulf of California during overnight hours. A broad area 
of low pressure is likely to form Mon through Tue offshore of 
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form during the early to middle part of next week while it 
moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Gale-force winds are expected with this low on 
Wed and Thu across the offshore waters of West Central Mexico. 
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail 
across the offshore waters S of 10N. For the offshore waters of 
Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central
America into next week, except fresh to strong easterly winds 
across the Papagayo region tonight into Sun morning. For the 
waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands,
moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly 
swell are expected during the period. Looking ahead, low pressure
may form offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue or Wed. Some 
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it 
moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the 
southern coast of Mexico. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure center near 33N152W anchors a broad 
surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas 
from 11N to 24N and west of 120W. Gentle northerly winds and 5 
to 6 ft seas prevail north of 24N west of 120W. Light to gentle 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SW and SE swell are noted from
02N to 10N W of 105W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward
and weaken through the weekend, then reorganize to the NW next
week. This should maintain moderate to fresh trade winds S of 
25N, and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. New moderate-sized SW 
swell will move through the equatorial waters tonight and Sun  
before decaying Mon and Tue.

$$
Stripling