374 
AXPZ20 KNHC 241544
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 100W from 16N southward, moving W 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-16N between 95W-106W. 

Another tropical wave is near 125W from 15N southward, and 
moving W at 10 kt. NO significant convection is noted with this
wave at this time. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11.5N106W to 06N133W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N133W to beyond 04N140W. Aside from the
convection described in the section above with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-16N 
between 81W-120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to
near 18N114W, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds 
and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters north of 
Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate N 
winds are present at the northern and central sections, while 
gentle southwest winds are noted over southern region. Seas 
across the central Gulf are up to 4 ft, and 2 ft or less 
elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail 
across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. Haze continues to 
be reported at the majority of coastal sites across southern 
Mexico, however with only minor restrictions to visibility. 

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge centered well NW of 
the area will dominate the offshore waters W of 100W through Mon
before weakening. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge 
and a meandering trough over northwest Mexico will support 
pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward 
during this period. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere, except pulsing fresh northerly winds across the 
central Gulf of California during overnight hours.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is likely to form by
early Mon offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, parallel 
to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
across the offshore waters of the Central America. For the 
offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in
southerly swell prevail. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and slight 
to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of 
Central America into next week, except fresh to strong easterly 
winds off the Papagayo region Sat night into Sun morning. For the
waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in 
southerly swell are expected during the period. Looking ahead, 
low pressure may form offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala late 
Tue or Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1028 mb high pressure center near 32N153W anchors a broad 
surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas 
from 13N to 25N and west of 120W. Gentle northerly winds and 5 to
6 ft seas prevail north of 25N west of 120W. Light to gentle 
winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted from 02N to 13N W of 105W. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward
and weaken through the weekend. This should maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds S of 24N, and seas in the 6 to 8 ft 
range. Moderate SW swell will enter the equatorial waters today 
before decaying by late Sun and Mon.

$$
ERA