000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240901
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 99W from 17N southward, and moving west 
10 kt. Associated convection is described below. 

Another tropical wave is near 122W from 15N southward, and 
moving west at 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 11.5N106W to 13N117W to 
07N132W. An ITCZ continues from 07N132W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 
09.5N between 80W and 99W, from 07N to 13N between 102W and 
113W, and within 90 nm of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala 
and Mexico between 87.5W and 102W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to
near 20N114W, and is supporting fresh to locally strong 
northerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California 
waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, 
gentle to moderate N winds are present at the northern and 
central sections, while gentle southwest winds are seen at the 
southern region. Seas across the central Gulf are at 3 to 4 ft,
and 3 ft or less elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 5 
ft seas prevail across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. 
Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites 
across southern Mexico, however with only minor restrictions to 
visibility. 

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge centered well NW of 
the area will dominate the offshore waters W of 100W through Mon
before weakening. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge 
and a meandering trough over northwest Mexico will support 
pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward 
during this period. Mainly gentle with locally moderate winds are
expected elsewhere, except pulsing moderate northerly winds 
across the central Gulf of California during overnight hours.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form by 
early Mon offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be favorable for development of this system, and 
a tropical depression is expected to form during the next several
days, while it moves generally west-northwestward and parallel 
to the SW coast of Mexico. This will bring freshening winds,
building seas, and active thunderstorms across the nearshore
waters of Mexico from Tehuantepec to Guerrero. There is a high 
chance of development from the next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2 for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
across the offshore waters of the Central America. For the 
offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in
southerly swell prevail. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for convection in the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and slight 
to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of 
Central America into next week, except fresh to strong easterly 
winds off the Papagayo region Sat night into Sun morning. For the
waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate 
seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Looking
ahead, low pressure may form offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala late Tue or Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1028 mb high pressure center near 33N151W anchors a broad 
surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas 
from 13N to 25N and west of 120W. Gentle northerly winds and 5 
to 6 ft seas exist north of 25N west of 120W. Light to gentle 
winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen from 02N to 13N W of 105W. 
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at 
the beginning for description of the convection in the area. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward
and weaken through this weekend. This should maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds S of 24N, and seas in the 6 to 8 ft
range. Moderate SW swell will enter the equatorial waters later 
today before decaying on late Sun and Mon.

$$
Stripling