000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232208
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 96W from 15N southward, and moving west 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 
15N between 90W and 100W.

Another tropical wave is near 121W from 15N southward, and 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 07N to 14N between 117W and 126W.

A third tropical wave is near 139W from 16N southward, and 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found 
near this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica
border across 14N105W to 09N131W. An ITCZ continues from 09N131W
to 05N136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen near and south of the trough from 06N to 14N between 100W 
and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 
the trough from 02N to the Costa Rica-Panama coast and east of 
90W. There is no significant convection near the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to
near 18N115W, and is supporting fresh to locally strong 
northerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California 
waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, 
gentle to moderate N winds are present at the northern and 
central region while gentle southerly winds are seen at the 
southern region. Seas across the entire gulf are at 2 to 3 ft. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at 
the central Mexico offshore waters. Mostly gentle SE to SW winds
and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail at the southern Mexico offshore 
waters. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal 
sites across southern Mexico, however with only minor 
restrictions to visibility. 

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge centered well NW of 
the area will dominate the offshore waters W of 100W into early 
next week. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a 
meandering trough over northwest Mexico will support pulsing 
fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this 
period. Mainly gentle with locally moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere, except pulsing moderate northerly winds across the 
central Gulf of California during overnight hours.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this 
weekend south of the southern Mexico coast. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this 
system, and a tropical depression will probably form early next 
week while it moves generally west-northwestward and parallel to 
the SW coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of development 
from the next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2
for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
across the offshore waters of the Central America. For the 
offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in
southerly swell prevail. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for convection in the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and slight 
to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of the 
Central American countries into next week, except fresh to strong
easterly winds off the Papagayo region Sat night into Sun 
morning. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and 
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure center near 32N152W anchors a broad 
surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas 
from 13N to 25N and west of 122W. Gentle northerly winds and 4 
to 5 ft seas exist north of 25N west of 122W. Light to gentle 
winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen from 02N to 13N W of 105W. 
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at 
the beginning for description of the convection in the area. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward
and weaken through this weekend. This should maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds S of 24N, and allow winds N of 24N and
W of 125W to diminish slightly through the weekend. Moderate SW 
swell will enter the equatorial waters later today before decaying
on Sun and Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan