000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 95W from 15N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 15N between 90W and 100W. Another tropical wave is near 120W from 15N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 117W and 127W. A third tropical wave is near 138W from 16N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border across 11N105W to 07N130W. An ITCZ continues from 07N130W to 05N137W, then resumes from 04N138W to beyond 140W at 04N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the trough from 02N to the Panama coast and east of 90W, and near the trough from 03N to 15N between 100W and 115W. There is no significant convection near the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to near 18N115W, and is supporting fresh to locally strong northerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate N winds are present at the northern and central region while gentle southerly winds are seen at the southern region. Seas across the entire gulf are at 2 to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the central Mexico offshore waters. Mostly gentle N to E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail at the southern Mexico offshore waters. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites across southern Mexico, however with only minor restrictions to visibility. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters west of 100W into early next week. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over northwest Mexico will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this period. Seas in this area are building to 7-8 ft this morning due to freshening winds and NW swell. Mainly gentle with locally moderate winds are expected elsewhere, except pulsing moderate to fresh northerly winds at the central Gulf of California during overnight hours. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend south of the southern Mexico coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression may form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward and parallel to the SW coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of development from the next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2 for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of the Central America. For the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in new S swell prevail. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of the central American into next week. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected during the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure center located near 34N152W anchors a broad surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge is supporting moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 13N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen from 02N to 13N W of 105W. Very active convection continues about the monsoon trough between 96W and 112W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ above for description of the convection in the area. For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward and weaken through this weekend. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 24N, and allow winds N of 24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly through the weekend. Moderate SW swell will enter the equatorial waters Fri through Sat. $$ Forecaster Chan