000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 92W from Guatemala southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Convection is described below. Another tropical wave is near 117W from 16N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Convection is described below. A third tropical wave is near 133W from 17N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 11.5N91W to 10N106W to 13N118W to 10N127W. The ITCZ extends from 10N127W to 05N135W then resumes from 04.5N137W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 06N and E of 82W, and from 04N to 10.5N between 96W and 113W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 09.5N between 83W and 94W, from 14N to 16N between 93W and 101W, and from 09N to 13N between 116W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to 100W, and is supporting fresh to locally strong northerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are present in the central and southern Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh westerly gap winds prevail across N portions, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate W to SW winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail in the southern Mexico offshore waters. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites across southern Mexico, however with only minor restrictions to visibility. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters west of 100W into early next week. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over northwest Mexico will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this period. Seas in this area are building to 7-8 ft this morning due to freshening winds and NW swell. Mainly gentle with locally moderate winds are expected elsewhere, except pulsing moderate to fresh northerly winds at the central Gulf of California during overnight hours. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend south of the southern Mexico coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression may form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward and parallel to the SW coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of development from the next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2 for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of the Central America. For the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in new S swell prevail. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of the central American into next week. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected during the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure center located near 34N152W anchors a broad surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge is supporting moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 13N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen from 02N to 13N W of 105W. Very active convection continues about the monsoon trough between 96W and 112W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ above for description of the convection in the area. For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward and weaken through this weekend. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 24N, and allow winds N of 24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly through the weekend. Moderate SW swell will enter the equatorial waters Fri through Sat. $$ Stripling