176 
AXPZ20 KNHC 230312
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 91W from Guatemala southward, and moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 04N to 14N between 90W and 100W.

Another tropical wave is near 116W from 16N southward, and 
moving west around 5 kt. Widely scattered showers are found from
09N to 13N between 114W and 120W.

A third tropical wave is near 134W from 17N, and moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 12N93W to 12.5N110W to
07N127W. The ITCZ extends from 07N127W to 06N134W then resumes
from 04.5N137W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted N of 03N and E of 80W, N of 05N between 80W
and 85W, from 04N to 11.5N between 95W and 112W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09.5N to 13N between 115W and
124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge is supporting fresh to locally strong 
northerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California 
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft are present at the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate 
W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft exist in the southern Mexico
offshore waters. Haze continues to be reported at the majority 
of coastal sites across southern Mexico, however there is only 
minor restrictions on visibility. Refer to the Tropical Waves 
section for convection in the Mexico Offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore waters west of Baja California into early next week.
A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering 
trough over northwest Mexico will support pulsing fresh to strong
winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this period. Seas in
this area will build to 7-8 ft by late tonight due freshening
winds and NW swell. Mainly gentle with locally moderate winds 
are expected elsewhere, except pulsing moderate to fresh 
northerly winds at the central Gulf of California during 
overnight hours.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this 
weekend a few hundred nm south of the southern Mexico coast. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression might form
early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward 
parallel to the SW coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of 
development from the next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2 for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are 
evident for the offshore waters of the Central America, except 
moderate with locally fresh SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas south of 
Panama. For the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and 
Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5
to 6 ft in new S swell prevail. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for convection in the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and slight 
to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of the 
central American into next week. For the waters offshore from 
Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to locally 
fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected for the same 
period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb high pressure center locating near 34N151W anchors a 
broad surface ridge extending southeastward to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is supporting moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 12N and west of 
120W, and also from 08N to 12N west of 132W. Light to gentle 
winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen from 10N to 15N between 105W 
and 132W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to SW winds 
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the area. 
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at 
the beginning for convection in the area.

For the forecast, the high pressure related to the surface ridge
will gradually sink southward and weakening some by this weekend.
This should allow winds N of 24N and W of 125W to diminish 
slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of 
there to the monsoon trough. Moderate SW swell will enter the
equatorial waters Fri through Sat.

$$
Stripling