000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 91W from Guatemala southward, and moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 04N to 14N between 90W and 100W.

Another tropical wave is near 116W from 16N southward, and 
moving west around 5 kt. Widely scattered showers are found from
09N to 13N between 114W and 120W.

A third tropical wave is near 134W from 17N, and moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from Nicaragua-Costa Rica border across
10N100W to 09N125W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen near and up to 340 nm north of the monsoon 
trough between 100W and 111W. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are found south of the trough from 03N to the 
Costa Rica/Panama coast between the Colombia coast and 86W.
Scattered showers are occurring farther west near the monsoon
trough from 06N to 13N between 120W and 128W.

An ITCZ continues from 09N125W to 06N133W, then from 06N134W to 
beyond 140W at 06N. No significant convection is seen near the 
ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge continues to channel moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas west of Baja California. 
Mainly gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the Gulf
of California. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft exist in the southern Mexico offshore waters. Haze 
continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites across 
southern Mexico, however there is only minor restrictions on 
visibility. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in
the Mexico Offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore waters west of Baja California into early next week.
Tight pressure gradient between it and a meandering trough over 
northwest Mexico will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from 
Cabo San Lazaro northward during this period. Seas in this area 
will rise to near 8 ft by late tonight due to NW swell. Mainly 
gentle with locally moderate winds are expected elsewhere, except
pulsing moderate to fresh northerly winds at the central Gulf of
California during overnight hours.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this 
weekend a few hundred nm south of the southern Mexico coast. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression might form
early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward 
parallel to the SW coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of 
development from the next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2 for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident
for the offshore waters of the Latin American nations, except
moderate with locally fresh SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas south of
Panama. For the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft prevail. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
convection in the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and slight 
to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of the 
central American nations into next week. For the waters offshore 
from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to 
locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected for 
the same period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from off the
California coast to north of the monsoon trough near the
Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is supplying moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas north of 12N and west of
120W, and also from 08N to 12N west of 132W. Light to gentle
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen from 10N to 15N between 105W
and 132W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to SW winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the area.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for convection in the area.

For the forecast, the high pressure related to the surface ridge
will gradually sink southward and weakening some by this weekend.
This should allow winds N of 24N and W of 125W to diminish 
slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of 
there to the monsoon trough. No significant swell events are 
anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

$$

Forecaster Chan