000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W from El Salvador southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 87W and 98W. Another tropical wave is near 115W from 15N southward, and moving W around 5 kt. No significant convection is present near the wave. The tropical wave previously located near 108W has merged with this wave. A third tropical wave is near 133W from 16N, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from FROM NICARAGUA-Costa RICA BORDER ACROSS 10N105W TO 06N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE convection is seen UP TO 250 NM NORTH AND 300 NM SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TROUGH WEST OF 98W. SIMILAR conditions are found south of the trough FROM 03N TO PANAMA COAST BETWEEN COLOMBIA COAST AND 86W.. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N133W TO BEYOND 140W AT 05N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The ridge combined with a meandering trough over the Gulf of California or NW Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward with seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, moderate winds are in the central Gulf of California due to a locally tight pressure gradient, with seas of 2-4 ft. Light and variable winds and 1-3 ft seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of California, locally 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail, except locally fresh winds within 60 nm of the coast of SW Mexico. Seas of 4-5 ft in southerly swell prevail. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites, however with only minor restrictions to visibility if any. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the next several days. The ridge combined with the aforementioned meandering trough will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward through the forecast period. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California mainly during the overnight hours. Building seas of up to 8 ft are expected offshore Baja California due to NW swell and the fresh to strong winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pres is likely to form this weekend a few hundred nautical miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form early next week while it moves generally WNW parallel to the SW coast of Mexico. This system has a low (0%) chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high (70%) chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough, roughly from 09N/10N northward, except moderate NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Mainly moderate southerly winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3-6 ft, highest S of 03N. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well N of the area extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are N of the monsoon trough and W of 117W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range, except to 8 ft in northerly swell N of 22N and W of 117W. Winds and seas may be higher in and near any of the above mentioned convection. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough through the next several days, while sinking southward and weakening some. This will cause winds N of 23N/24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of there to the monsoon trough. No significant swell events are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Forecaster Chan