000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W/87W N of 03N to across Central America, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 02N to 11N between 80W and 96W. The wave is enhancing convection across parts of central America, especially over Costa Rica and Nicaragua. A tropical wave is along 108W from 03N to 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 100W and 107W. A tropical wave is along 114W/115W from 03N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 10N to 15N between 109W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 115W and 120W. A tropical wave is along 129W/130W from 03N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N83W to across the Gulf of Papagayo to 11N102W to 08.5N129W. No ITCZ is noted E of 140W. Convection is described above in the tropical waves section. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The ridge combined with a meandering trough over the Gulf of California or NW Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward with seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds are in the central Gulf of California due to a locally tight pressure gradient, with seas of 2-4 ft. Light and variable winds and 1-3 ft seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of California, locally 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail, except locally fresh winds within 60 nm of the coast of SW Mexico. Seas of 4-5 ft in southerly swell prevail. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites, however with only minor restrictions to visibility if any. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the next several days. The ridge combined with the aforementioned meandering trough will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward through the forecast period. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California mainly during the overnight hours. Building seas of up to 8 ft are expected offshore Baja California due to NW swell and the fresh to strong winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pres is likely to form this weekend a few hundred nautical miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a low (0%) chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium (60%) chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough, roughly from the Papagayo region northward, with mainly moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3-6 ft in S-SW swell, except 4-7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well N of the area extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range, except to 8 ft in northerly swell N of 22N and W of 117W. Winds and seas may be higher in and near any of the above mentioned convection. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough through the next several days, while sinking southward and weakening some. This will cause winds N of 23N/24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of there to the monsoon trough. No significant swell events are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky