000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210717 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0610 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W N of 03N to across western Panama and into the SW Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 77W and 92W. A tropical wave is along 101W/102W from 03N to 16N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 14N between 98W and 106W. A tropical wave is along 110W from 04N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 05N to 14N between 106W and 119W. A tropical wave is along 125W/126W from 03N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 12N between 119W and 126W. A tropical wave is along 134W/135W from 05N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to 09N110W to 08N140W. No ITCZ is analyzed E of 140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from offshore of Guatemala and Mexico to 13N between 100W and 109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extending from NW to SE across the offshore waters continues to dominate the offshore waters of Mexico. The ridge combined with low pres troughing over the NW Mexico region is supporting fresh to locally strong winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except locally fresh in the central and northern Gulf of California. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, and mainly 4-5 ft in S-SW swell elsewhere. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf, and 2-5 ft in the central and southern Gulf. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites, however with only minor restrictions to visibility if any. For the forecast, ridging extending from the NW to SE will dominate the offshore waters of Mexico through the end of the week. The ridge combined with low pres troughing over NW Mexico or Baja California will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward through the forecast period. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California mainly during the overnight hours. Seas of up to 8 ft will be offshore Baja California due to NW swell and the fresh to strong winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 88W with seas of 5-6 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-6 ft in S-SW swell, except 4-7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through the morning. Elsewhere and otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days. A developing low pres along the monsoon trough may bring gentle to moderate SW to W winds across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia today through Thu. Slight to moderate southerly swell will prevail through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres centered well N of the area extends southward and dominates the open waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE trades prevail N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft across the open waters, highest N of 24N in mixed northerly swell. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough through the next several days, while sinking southward. This will cause winds N of 23N/24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of there to the monsoon trough. No significant swell sets are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky