235 AXPZ20 KNHC 202122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 80W N of 04N. The waves extends from the SW Caribbean across Panama into the EPAC region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 04N-06N between 78W-84W. A tropical wave is along 98/99W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 05N to 15N between 94W and 100W. A tropical wave is along 107W/108W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 106W and 113W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewehre from 05N to 15N between 100W and 118W. A tropical wave is along 123W from 04N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 120W and 125W. A tropical wave is along 131W from 05N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N98W to 12N116W to 08N130W to 06N140W. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 07N between 80W and 85W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection covers the area from 02N-08N W of 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds with seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds are noted over the northern part of the Gulf while light to gentle northerly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light and variable winds prevail with seas of 5-7 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through the week, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. By Wed evening, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure inland Mexico will result in fresh to locally strong NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. These winds will cover much of the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Thu evening, and persist through the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, pulsing to fresh tonight and Wed over the N and central parts of the Gulf. NW swell generated by strong winds offshore California, will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight, building seas to 6-8 ft on Wed. At that time, seas of 5-7 ft in mixed NW and S swell will dominate much of the waters W of Baja California. Light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters with seas in the 4-6 ft range due to S swell. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 87W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail N of 03N, with gentle to moderate southerly winds S of 03N, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to locally moderate N winds are noted based on scatterometer data. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft in S swell. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected again in the Papagayo region tonight. Then, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast through Thu night. Elsewhere, across the remainder of Central American and Colombia offshore waters winds are forecast to remain light to gentle through early Wed while gentle to moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. On Wed, a developing low pres along the monsoon trough may bring gentle to moderate SW to W winds across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1034 mb located near 41N143W extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south supports moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to about 15N and west of 135W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted S of the monsoon trough to the Equator and W of 100W. The surface ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W for the remainder of the work-week producing a moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker. Seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range through the week. $$ GR