000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200825
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 97W N of 01N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 93W and
100W.

A tropical wave is along 106W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N 
between 100W and 111W.

A tropical wave is along 121W from 04N to 17N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 12N between 
112W and 124W.

A tropical wave axis is along 130W from 05N to 17N, moving W at 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 04N to
11N between 128W and 134W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N116W to 08N127W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N134W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves described above, 
scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 12N and W 
of 94W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds with seas of 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light and 
variable winds prevail with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near 
the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters, light and variable winds prevail with seas of 4-6 ft in 
southerly swell. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region through the week, 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters 
of Baja California through Wed. By Wed evening, the pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure inland Mexico will  
produce fresh to strong NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and 
Punta Eugenia for a few hours. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected in the Gulf of California, pulsing to fresh at night 
over the N and central parts of the Gulf through Thu night. NW 
swell generated by gale force winds offshore California, will 
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight, building seas to 
6-8 ft on Wed. On Wed, seas of 5-7 ft in mixed NW and S swell 
will dominate most of the waters W of Baja California. Light to 
gentle winds will persist elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters with seas in the 4-5 ft range due to S swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downwind to about 87W with seas of 5 to 6 ft. 
Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail N of 04N, with gentle 
to moderate southerly winds S of 04N, including the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 4 
to 6 ft in S swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue 
in the Papagayo region through tonight. Then, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds are expected through Thu night. Winds across the 
remainder of Central American and Colombia offshore waters are 
forecast to remain light to gentle through early Wed while gentle
to moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. On Wed, a developing low pres along the 
monsoon trough may bring gentle to moderate SW to W winds across 
the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1033 mb located near 43N145W extends a ridge 
across the forecast waters N of 10N W of 110W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
south supports moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 
and west of 120W. Seas are near 7 ft in this area. Moderate to 
fresh southerly winds are noted S of the monsoon trough between 
95W and 130W with higher winds near thunderstorms. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted elsewhere.

The surface ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters
for the remainder of the work-week. The high pressure center 
will move southward while strengthening some by mid-week. As a 
result, moderate to fresh trades are expected across the west- 
central waters likely through Fri. Elsewhere, winds should remain
moderate or weaker. Seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range 
through the week.

$$
ERA