672 
AXPZ20 KNHC 200317
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W N of 01N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 92W and
100W.

A tropical wave is along 104W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N 
between 100W and 110W.

A tropical wave is along 117W from 03N to 16N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. A 1006 mb low pres is analyzed along the wave axis near
12N117W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N 
between 110W and 122W.

A tropical wave axis is along 128W from 05N to 17N, moving W at 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 05N to
10N between 122W and 135W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from west Panama near 10N86W to 
09N110W to 1006 mb low pressure near 12N117W to 08N128W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N133W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the 
convection related to the tropical waves described above, 
scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 12N and W
of 93W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N 
winds with seas of 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light and 
variable winds prevail with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near 
the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters, light and variable winds prevail with seas of 4-6 ft in 
southerly swell. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region through the week, 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters 
of Baja California through Wed. By Wed evening, the pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure inland Mexico will 
tighten enough to bring fresh to strong NW winds mainly between 
Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected in the Gulf of California, increasing to fresh at night
over the N and central parts of the Gulf through Thu night. NW 
swell, generated by gale force winds offshore California, will 
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia late on Tue, building seas to
6-8 ft by Tue evening. Early on Wed, seas of 5-7 ft in mixed NW 
and S swell will dominate most of the waters W of Baja 
California. Light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere across 
the Mexican offshore waters with seas in the 4-5 ft range due to 
S swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downwind to about 87W with seas of 5 to 6 ft. 
Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail N of 04N, with gentle 
to moderate southerly winds S of 04N, including the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 4 
to 6 ft in S swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue 
in the Papagayo region through Tue night, and briefly increase  
to fresh to strong speeds tonight. Then, mainly gentle to moderate
winds are expected through Thu night. Winds across the remainder
of Central American and Colombia offshore waters are forecast to
remain light to gentle through early Wed while gentle to moderate
S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
On Wed, a developing low pres along the monsoon trough may bring
gentle to moderate SW to W winds across the offshore waters of
Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1033 mb located near 43N144W extends a ridge 
across the forecast waters N of 10N W of 110W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
south supports moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 
about 15N and west of 120W. Seas are near 7 ft within these 
winds. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted S of the 
monsoon trough between 95W and 135W with higher winds near 
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere.

The surface ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters
for the remainder of the work-week. The high pressure center 
will move southward while strengthening some by mid-week. As a 
result, moderate to fresh trades are expected across the west- 
central waters likely through Fri. Elsewhere, winds should remain
moderate or weaker. Seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range 
through the week.

$$
ERA