000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192126
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is mainly ahead of
the wave axis from 05N to 11N between 91W and 100W.

A second tropical wave is along 102W from 05N to 16N, moving W 
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the 
wave axis.

Another tropical wave is along 115W from 04N to 17N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. A pretty well defined swirl of low clouds is noted 
along the wave axis near 12N115W, and 1009 mb low pressure is 
analyzed there. Scattered moderate convection is near the 
northern end of the wave from 13N to 17N between 113.5W and 117W.

A tropical wave axis is along 126W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 
around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 120W
and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from west Panama near 08N81W to 09N87W
to 08N105W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N115W to 07N128W. The 
ITCZ continues from 08N128W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the 
convection related to the tropical waves described above, 
scattered moderate to isolated convection is occurring from 04N 
to 10N between 100W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds with
seas of 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light and variable 
winds prevail with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the 
entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters, light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer 
data with seas of 4-6 ft in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the region through at least Fri, supporting 
moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja 
California through Wed. By Wed evening, the pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure inland Mexico will tighten 
enough to bring fresh to strong NW winds mainly between Cabo San
Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
in the Gulf of California, locally fresh at night over the N and 
central parts of the Gulf through Thu night. NW swell, generated 
by gale force winds offshore California, will reach the waters N 
of Punta Eugenia late on Tue, building seas to 6-8 ft by Tue 
evening. Early on Wed, seas of 5-7 ft in mixed NW and S swell 
will dominate most of the waters W of Baja California. Light to 
gentle winds will persist elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters with seas in the 4-5 ft range due to S swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh NE to E
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 87W with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail N 
of 04N, with gentle to moderate southerly winds S of 04N, 
including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in S swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue 
in the Papagayo region through Tue night, and briefly increase  
to fresh to strong speeds tonight. Then, mainly gentle to moderate
winds are expected through Thu night. Winds across the remainder
of Central American and Colombia offshore waters are forecast to
remain light to gentle through early Wed while gentle to moderate
S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
On Wed, a developing low pres along the monsoon trough may bring
gentle to moderate SW to W winds across the offshore waters of
Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1034 mb located near 43N145W extends a ridge
across the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
south supports moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 
about 15N and west of 130W based on recent satellite derived wind
data. Seas are near 8 ft within these winds based on altimeter
data. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are seen S of the monsoon
trough between 95W and 130W with higher winds near thunderstorms.
Gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere.

A ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of 15N W
of 110W the remainder of the work-week. The high pressure center
will move southward while strengthening some by mid-week. As a
result, moderate to fresh trades are expected across the west- 
central waters likely through Fri. Elsewhere, winds should remain
moderate or weaker. Seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range through
the week.

$$
GR