000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500| UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 100W from 04N to 15N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the wave axis. A tropical wave (EP90) extends along 114.5W from 04N to 17N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. A 1007 mb low pres is analyzed along the wave axis near 12N114.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of the low center from 13N to 16N between 112W and 116W. Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished overnight associated with this tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development of this system is no longer expected as it begins to encounter stronger upper-level winds today while moving west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 kt. A tropical wave axis is along 125W from 04N to 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 122W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from west Panama near 08N81W to 09N100W to 07N107W to 09N120W to 08N123W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 11N between 93W and 105W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 105W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1033 mb high pressure located near 45N145W southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft in NW swell along the Baja Peninsula and in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds through at least Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, locally fresh at night over the N and central parts of the Gulf through Wed night. NW swell, generated by gale force winds offshore California, will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Tue, building seas to 6-8 ft by Tue evening. Early on Wed, seas of 5-7 ft in mixed NW and S swell will dominate most of the waters W of Baja California. Light to gentle winds will persist in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the forecast period with seas in the 4-5 ft range due to S swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through tonight when a brief increase to fresh to strong speeds is forecast to continue through Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast in the Papagayo region Tue afternoon through the remainder forecast period. Winds across the remainder of Central American waters are forecast to remain light to gentle. Otherwise, southerly gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas are forecast for the offshore waters between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends from a 1033 mb high pressure at 45N145W southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing north of 23N and west of 130W, with seas to 7 ft in NE swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing south S of the monsoon and ITCZ between the Galapagos Islands and 130W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. South of 06N, an 6-8 ft southerly swell is propagating N across the waters between 102W and 120W. A ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh from 06N to 22N, west of 120W. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker. The 6-8 ft SW swell will start to subside by Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range through the week. $$ GR