581 AXPZ20 KNHC 190850 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 87W N of 01N into the Gulf of Honduras in the NW Caribbean. The wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. A tropical wave axis extends along 96W from 01N to 15N, and is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 16N between 95W and 98W. A tropical wave (EP90) axis extends along 114.5W from 02N to 18N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pres is centered along the wave axis near 12N114W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 05N to 20N between 111W and 117W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the N semicircle of the low. Development of this system appears unlikely since it will be moving west-northwestward into unfavorable environmental conditions in the next day or so. Therefore, chances of development within two or seven days is low. A tropical wave axis is along 124W from 03N to 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 121W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1008 mb low pres near 12N114W to 10N122W. The ITCZ extends from 08N128W to 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 300 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from a 1033 mb high pressure at 45N146W southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft in NW swell along the Baja Peninsula and in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail and expand to the Baja California Sur offshore waters tonight into Tue as a set of NW swell enters the region bringing seas of 5 to 6 ft to the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Both the NW swell and the winds to fresh speeds will continue to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters through Fri night, with periods of strong winds along the coast N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds will persist in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop along the southern half of the Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through tonight when a brief increase to fresh to strong speeds is forecast continuing through Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast in the Papagayo region Tue afternoon through the remainder forecast period. Winds across the remainder Central American waters are forecast to remain light to gentle. Otherwise, southerly gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas are forecast for the offshore waters between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Tropical Waves Section for information on EP90/tropical wave near 114.5W, which is generating fresh winds and rough seas. Surface ridging extends from a 1033 mb high pressure at 45N146W southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters. The pressure difference between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing north of 23N and west of 130W, with seas to 7 ft in NE swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing south S of the monsoon and ITCZ between the Galapagos Islands and 130W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. South of 06N, an 6-8 ft southerly swell is propagating N across the waters between 102W and 120W. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh from 06N to 22N, west of 120W. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker. The 6-8 ft SW swell will start to subside by Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range through the week. $$ ERA