000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190245 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 87W N of 01N into the Gulf of Honduras in the NW Caribbean. The wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. A tropical wave axis extends along 95W from 02N to 14N, and is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 93W and 98W. A tropical wave (EP90) axis extends along 114W from 02N to 18N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. A 1006 mb low pres is centered along the wave axis near 12N114W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 05N to 17N between 109W and 115W. Fresh winds prevail across the N semicircle of the low. Development of this system appears unlikely since it will be moving west- northwestward into unfavorable environmental conditions in the next day or so. Therefore, chances of development within two or seven days is low. A tropical wave axis is along 124W from 03N to 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 121W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N105W to 1006 mb low pres near 12N113W to 10N118W. The ITCZ extends from 10N118W to 08N122W, then resumes from 07N127W to 06N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 270 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from a 1033 mb high pressure at 45N147W southeastward to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro with strong winds just N of Punta Eugenia. Winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Oaxaca, Mexico as well as along the Gulf of California are light to gentle. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft in NW swell along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell are ongoing in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds N of Punta Eugenia will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail and expand to the Baja California Sur offshore waters Mon night into Tue as a set of NW swell enters the region bringing seas of 7 to 8 ft to the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Both the NW swell and the winds to fresh speeds will continue to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters through Fri night, with periods of locally strong winds along the coast N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds will persist in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop along the southern half of the Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-6 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated to a tropical wave are affecting the Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshore waters. See tropical waves section above. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Mon night when a brief increase to fresh to strong speeds is forecast continuing through Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast in the Papagayo region Tue afternoon through the remainder forecast period. Winds across the remainder Central American waters are forecast to remain light to gentle. Otherwise, southerly gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas are forecast for the offshore waters between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Tropical Waves Section for information on EP90/tropical wave near 114W, which is generating fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Surface ridging extends from a 1033 mb high pressure at 45N147W southeastward to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure difference between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 118W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing north of 24N and west of 130W, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in NE swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing south S of the monsoon and ITCZ between the Galapagos Islands and 130W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. South of 06N, an 7-9 ft southerly swell is propagating N across the waters between 89W and 131W. The fresh NE winds will prevail through tonight north of 24N and west of 130W. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh from 06N to 22N, west of 120W. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker. The 7-9 ft SW swell will start to subside by Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range through Tue. $$ ERA