000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 85W N of 02N into the Gulf of Honduras in the NW Caribbean. The wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. A tropical wave axis extends along 94W from 02N to 14N, and is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 90W and 97W. A tropical wave (EP90) axis is along 111W from 05N to 19N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. A 1010 mb low pres is centered along the wave near 12N111W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N to 16N between 109W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 11N between 108W and 116W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the NE quadrant of the low along with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Some slow development of this system remains possible during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Thereafter, the environment is expected to become unfavorable for development. Chances of development within two or seven days is low. A tropical wave axis is along 123W from 03N to 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between 119W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1010 mb low pres near 12N111W to 10N115W. The ITCZ extends from 07N126W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 08N W of 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high pressure at 38N148W southeastward to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro with strong winds just N of Punta Eugenia. Winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Oaxaca, Mexico as well as along the Gulf of California are light to gentle. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft in NW swell along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell are ongoing in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds N of Punta Eugenia will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds this evening. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail and expand to the Baja California Sur offshore waters Mon night into Tue as a set of NW swell enters the region bringing seas of 7 to 8 ft to the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Both the NW swell and the winds to fresh speeds will continue to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters through Fri night, with periods of locally strong winds along the coast N of Cabo San Lazaro. Mainly light to gentle winds will persist in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop along the southern half of the Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle SE to S winds are ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SE to S swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-5 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend E of 92W affecting Central America. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Mon night when a brief increase to fresh to strong speeds is forecast continuing through Tue morning. Gentle to locally moderate winds are forecast in the Papagayo region Tue afternoon through the remainder forecast period. Winds across the remainder Central American waters are forecast to remain light to gentle. Otherwise, southerly gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas are forecast for the offshore waters between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Tropical Waves Section for information on EP90/tropical wave near 112W, which is generating fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high pressure at 38N149W southeastward to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure difference between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing north of 25N and west of 130W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing south S of the monsoon and ITCZ between 94W and 130W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. To the south, an 8-9 ft SW swell is propagating N across the waters S of the Equator between 102W and 120W. The fresh NE winds will prevail through this afternoon north of 25N and west of 130W. Some slow tropical development is possible with the low pres near 12N109W during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the middle of the week. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh from 06N to 22N, west of 120W. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker. The 8-9 ft SW swell will propagate N across the southern waters through this afternoon. Elsewhere, seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range through Tue. $$ Ramos