628 
AXPZ20 KNHC 180855
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends along 93W from 04N to 13N, and is 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N to 14N between 89W and 95W.

A tropical wave axis is along 109W from 06N-17N, moving west 
around 10-15 kt. A 1008 mb low pres is centered along the wave
near 11N109W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 
08N to 16N between 106W and 113W.

A tropical wave axis is along 121W from 09N-18N, moving west 
around 10 kt. Scattered showers have developed along 10N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1008 mb low pres near 
11N109W to 10N117W. The ITCZ extends from 06N126W to 04N140W. 
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 
16N E of 95W, and from 03N to 09N between 129W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from a 1032 mb high pressure at 39N148W 
southeastward to the Baja California peninsula. The gradient 
between the ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of 
California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San 
Lazaro with strong winds N of Punta Eugenia. Winds between Cabo 
San Lazaro and Jalisco, Mexico as well as along the Gulf of 
California are light to gentle. Light to gentle E to SE are 
elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters along with seas
of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the 
Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft in NW swell along the Baja 
Peninsula offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds west of Baja 
California will prevail through this morning. Light to gentle winds
will persist elsewhere through Mon. NW to N winds will increase 
to fresh to strong west of Baja California again Mon night 
through the middle of next week, as high pressure restrengthens 
west of the area. NW to N swell will slightly increase off Baja 
California Norte by the middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo 
region, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle SE to S winds are 
ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SE to S swell. Light to gentle 
variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-5 ft. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms extend E of 92W affecting Central 
America.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the Papagayo region
and seas to 6 ft will diminish by this morning and remain in the
gentle to moderate range through mid-week. Elsewhere, winds 
should remain moderate or weaker across the Central American and 
equatorial Pacific waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends from a 1032 mb high pressure at 39N148W
southeastward to Baja California peninsula. The gradient between
the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing 
moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of
120W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of 26N and west of 
130W, with seas 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing 
south S of the monsoon and ITCZ between 95W and 135W. Elsewhere, 
winds are moderate or weaker. To the south, an 8-9 ft SW swell is
propagating N across the waters S of the Equator between 102W 
and 120W.

The fresh to strong NE winds will prevail through this afternoon 
north of 26N and west of 130W. Some slow tropical development is 
possible with the low pres near 11N109W during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The 
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the
middle of the week. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh 
from 06N to 22N, west of 120W. Elsewhere, winds should remain 
moderate or weaker. The 8-9 ft SW swell will propagate N across 
the southern waters through this afternoon. Elsewhere, seas 
should remain in the 5-7 ft range through Tue.

$$
ERA