803 
AXPZ20 KNHC 180235
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends along 92W from 04N to 13N, and is 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from N of 13N between 87W and 93W.

A tropical wave axis is along 109W from 06N-17N, moving west 
around 15 kt. A 1007 mb low pressure is in the vicinity of the
wave centered near 11N108W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 08N to 14N between 104W and 112W.

A tropical wave axis is along 120W from 09N-18N, moving west 
around 10 kt. No convection is associated with this wave at this
time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1007 mb low pres near 
11N108W to 10N117W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to 05N140W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 
15N E of 93W, and from 04N-09N between 129W-139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Ridging extends from a 1031 mb high pressure at 39N146W 
southeastward to Baja California Norte. The gradient between the 
ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is 
producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro with 
strong winds N of Punta Eugenia. Winds between Cabo San Lazaro 
and Jalisco, Mexico as well as along the Gulf of California are 
light to gentle. Gentle to moderate E to SE are elsewhere in the 
S and SW Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 6 ft in 
southerly swell. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of 
California, and 5-7 ft in NW swell along the Baja Peninsula 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds west of Baja 
California will prevail through tonight. Gentle to moderate 
winds will persist elsewhere through Mon. NW to N winds will 
increase to fresh to strong west of Baja California again Mon 
night through the middle of next week, as high pressure 
restrengthens west of the area. NW to N swell will slightly 
increase off Baja California Norte by the middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo 
region, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate SE to S 
winds are ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SE to S swell. Light to 
gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-5 ft. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend E of 92W affecting
central America and northern Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the Papagayo region
and seas to 7 ft will diminish by Sun morning and remain in the 
gentle to moderate range through mid-week. Elsewhere, winds 
should remain moderate or weaker across the Central American and 
equatorial Pacific waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends from a 1031 mb high pressure at 39N146W 
southeastward to Baja California Norte. The gradient between the 
ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing 
moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of
120W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of 26N and west of 
130W, with seas 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing 
south S of the monsoon and ITCZ between 95W and 135W. Elsewhere, 
winds are moderate or weaker. To the south, an 8-9 ft SW swell 
is propagating N across the waters S of the Equator between 102W
and 120W.

The fresh to strong NE winds will prevail through tonight north 
of 26N and west of 130W. Some slow tropical development is 
possible with the low pres near 11N108W during the next few days 
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The 
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the
middle of next week. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh 
from 08N to 18N, west of 130W. Elsewhere across the High Seas, 
winds should remain moderate or weaker. The exception is south of
02N between 100W-120W, where moderate to fresh SE winds are 
forecast Sun through Mon night. The 8-9 ft SW swell will 
propagate N across the southern waters through Sun. Elsewhere, 
seas should remain 5-7 ft through Tue.

$$
ERA