000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 90W from 03N to 12N, and is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 84W and 90W. A tropical wave is along 107W from 06N-17N, moving west around 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave where it intersects the monsoon trough near 11N106W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 17N between 100W and 112W. A tropical wave is along 120W from 08N-18N, moving west around 10 kt. No convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pres near 11N106W to 09N129W. The ITCZ extends from 08N123W to 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 00N to 08N E of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 132W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging extends from a 1030 mb high pressure at 38N143W southeastward to Baja California Norte. The gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Colima, Mexico as well as along the Gulf of California are light to gentle. Gentle to moderate E to SE are elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell. Otherwise, seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 5-7 ft in NW swell along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. For the forecast, the trough over the Gulf of California along with the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula will support fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja California through today. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through Mon. NW to N winds will increase to fresh to strong west of Baja California again Mon night through the middle of next week, as high pressure restrengthens just west of the area. NW to N swell will slightly increase off Baja California Norte by the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds continue in the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SE to S swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-5 ft. Heavy showers and thunderstorms extend offshore the W coast of Colombia to 83W. For the forecast, fresh winds over the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong tonight with seas building to 8 ft. Winds will diminish by Sun afternoon and remain gentle to moderate through mid-week. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker across the Central American and equatorial Pacific waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends from a 1030 mb high pressure at 38N143W southeastward to Baja California Norte. The gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing south S of the monsoon and ITCZ between 100W and 132W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. The ridge should build north of our area, and fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected through tonight north of 26N and west of 131W, with seas 8-10 ft. Some slow tropical development is possible with the low pres near 11N106W during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the middle portion of next week. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh from 08N to 18N, west of 130W. Elsewhere across the High Seas, winds should remain moderate or weaker. The exception is south of 02N between 100W-120W, where moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast Sun through Mon night. An 8-9 ft S swell will propagate N across the southern waters today through Sun, reaching from 03.4S to 04N, between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere, seas should remain 5-7 ft through Tue. $$ Ramos