000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170856
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 88W from 03N to 13N, and
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 01.5N to 08.5N between 85W and 90W.

A tropical wave is along 105W from 05N-14N, moving west around 
15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave where 
it intersects the monsoon trough near 11N105W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is occurring from 06N to 15N
between 100W and 110W.

A tropical wave is along 119W from 07N-16N, moving west around 10
kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pres near 
11N105W to 12N111W to 10N117W. The ITCZ extends from 08N123W to 
05N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
occurring from 02N to 09N between 77W and 80W off the coast of
Colombia and eastern Panama. Isolated thunderstorms are noted
from 07.5N to 14.5N between 94W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Ridging extends from a 1031 mb high pressure at 38N143W 
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient 
between the ridge and a trough over Baja California is producing 
moderate to fresh NW to NNW winds just west of the Baja 
California peninsula, possibly locally strong near Punta Eugenia.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail
offshore Mexico, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 3-5
ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are
occurring within 60 nm of the coast of Guerrero.

For the forecast, the trough over the Gulf of California along 
with the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula will 
support fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja California 
through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere 
through Mon. NW to N winds will increase to fresh to strong west
of Baja California again Mon night through the middle of next 
week, as high pressure restrengthens just west of the area. NW to
N swell will increase a bit off Baja California Norte by the
middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are evident in the Papagayo region, 
where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail 
elsewhere, with seas 4-6 ft, except for 3-4 ft near the coast of 
Colombia and Gulf of Panama. Heavy showers and thunderstorms
extend offshore the W coast of Colombia to 80W.

For the forecast, fresh winds over the Papagayo region will
increase to fresh to strong for tonight with seas building to 7
to 8 ft. Winds will diminish by Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, winds 
should remain moderate or weaker across the Central American and 
equatorial Pacific waters. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends from a 1031 mb high pressure at 38N143W 
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient 
between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is 
forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of 07.5N west of 126W.
Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted in ASCAT satellite data
south of 02S between 110W and 116W. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker. A 1008 mb low pressure along the monsoon
trough near 11N105W is producing abundant shower and 
thunderstorm activity, mentioned in the tropical waves section 
above. Seas are 7-9 ft in N swell north of 26N between 126W-140W.
Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell south of 02N between 100W-120W.
Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft.

The ridge should build north of our area, and fresh to locally
strong NE winds are expected through tonight north of 26N and 
west of 131W, with seas 8-10 ft. Some slow tropical development 
is possible with the low pres near 11N105W during the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. 
The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through
the middle portion of next week. Trade winds will remain 
moderate to fresh from 08N to 18N, west of 130W. Elsewhere 
across the High Seas, winds should remain moderate or weaker. The
exception is south of 02N between 100W-120W, where moderate to
fresh SE winds are forecast Sun through Mon night. An 8-9 ft S 
swell will propagate N across the southern waters today through 
Sun, reaching from 03.4S to 04N, between 100W and 125W.
Elsewhere, seas should remain 5-7 ft through Tue.

$$
Hagen