000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170402
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis near 87W from 13N over western 
Nicaragua southward to 03N. The tropical wave is moving W at 5 to
10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 01.5N to 09N between 84W and 91W. 

A tropical wave is along 104W from 05N-13N, moving west around 
15 kt. A 1007 mb low pressure has formed along the tropical wave
where it intersects the monsoon trough near 10N104W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is occurring from 06.5N to 14N 
between 99W and 110W.

A tropical wave is along 117W from 06N-15N, moving west around 5
to 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 1007 mb low pres near
10N104W to 10N115W to 06N123W. The ITCZ continues from 06N123W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring from 12N to 16N between 87W and 95W, including near the
coast of El Salvador, Guatemala and S Mexico. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 08.5N between 77W and 84W and 
from 05N to 08N between 130W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Ridging extends from a 1030 mb high at 39N140W southeastward to 
18N110W near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the
ridge and a trough over Baja California is producing moderate to
fresh NW winds just west of the Baja California peninsula. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft west of
Baja California and 5-6 ft elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft in the 
Gulf of California. Seas are 4-5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf 
of California. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
seen on satellite imagery within 120 nm of the coast of Chiapas 
and extreme E Oaxaca, to the east of 95W.

For the forecast, the trough over the Gulf of California along 
with the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula will 
support fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja California 
through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will persist 
elsewhere through Mon. Looking ahead, NW to N winds will increase
to fresh to strong west of Baja California again Mon night 
through the middle of next week, as high pressure restrengthens 
just west of the area. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are evident in the Papagayo region, 
where seas are near 6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail 
elsewhere, with seas 4-6 ft, except for 3-4 ft near the coast of 
Colombia and Gulf of Panama.

Showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the coasts of
Guatemala, El Salvador, and Colombia. Similar activity is noted
well offshore of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh winds are expected over the Papagayo
region tonight and Sat, increasing to fresh to strong for Sat
night with seas building to 8 ft. Winds will diminish by Sun 
afternoon. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker 
across the Central American and equatorial Pacific waters. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends from a 1030 mb high pressure at 39N140W 
southeastward to 18N110W near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of 07N west of
125W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. A 1007 mb low 
pressure has formed near 10N104W and is producing abundant shower
and thunderstorm activity, mentioned in the tropical waves 
section above. Seas are 7-9 ft in N swell north of 26N between 
120W-140W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft in SE to 
S swell south of the equator between 105W and 120W.

The ridge should build north of our area, and fresh to locally
strong NE winds are expected through Sat night north of 26N and
west of 131W, with seas 8-10 ft. Some slow tropical development
is possible with the low pres near 10N104W during the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. 
The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through
the middle portion of next week. Trade winds will remain moderate
to fresh from 07N to 20N, west of 130W. Elsewhere across the 
High Seas, winds should remain moderate or weaker. An 8-9 ft S 
swell will propagate N across the southern waters tonight through
Sun, reaching from 03.4S to 04N, between 100W and 125W.
Elsewhere, seas should remain 5-7 ft.

$$
Hagen