000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis near 86W from 13N over Nicaragua through W Costa Rica and into the E Pacific to 04N. The tropical wave is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-08N east of 87W. A tropical wave is along 103W from 05N-13N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-14N between 98W-106W. A tropical wave is along 117W from 07N-15N, moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N-08N between 113W-117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 11N105W to a 1010 mb low pressure center at 10N114W to 06N121W. The ITCZ begins at 06N121W and continues past 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-08N east of 87W and from 08N-14N between 98W-106W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N-08N between 113W-117W and from 06N-08N between 130W-138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging extends from a 1032 mb high at 39N140W southeastward to 20N112W near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds just west of the Baja California peninsula. Elsewehre winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Pacific waters and 1-3 ft in Gulf of California. For the forecast, the trough over the Gulf of California along with the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula will support fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja California through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through Mon. Looking ahead, NW to N winds will increase to fresh or strong west of Baja California again Mon night through the middle of next week, as high pressure restrengthens just west of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the tropical waves section above for information on convection offshore Central America and Colombia. Winds across the entire region are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Panama region and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds should occur over the Papagayo region Sat night and Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker across the Central American and equatorial Pacific waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends from a 1032 mb high at 39N140W southeastward to 20N112W near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the ridge and and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of 07N west of 125W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. A weak 1010 mb low pressure, mentioned in the monsoon trough section above, located near 10N114W, remains disorganized and is not producing any winds stronger than moderate speeds. Seas are 7-8 ft in N swell north of 27N between 120W-140W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft. The ridge should build north of our area and increase the NE winds to up a strong breeze tonight and Sat north of 27N west of 132W. Seas in these winds should build to 10 ft. The low is expected to drift toward the west before devolving into a trough on Sat, if not sooner. An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred nautical miles south of the S coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter, while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt. Elsewhere across the High Seas, winds should remain moderate or weaker. An 8-9 ft S swell should reach across our southern border west of 110W tonight through Sun. Elsewhere, seas should remain 5-7 ft. $$ Landsea