000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161610
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis near 85W from 13N over 
Nicaragua through western Costa Rica and into the east Pacific to
04N. The tropical wave is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 02N east of
85W. 

A tropical wave is along 102W from 06N-14N, moving west around 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-17N 
between 101W-107W.

A tropical wave is along 116W from 06N-15N, moving west around 5
to 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near the wave 
axis and along the monsoon trough near 10N115W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N-08N 
between 113W-116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 12N105W to a 1008 mb
low pressure center at 10N115W to a 1007 mb low at 07N133W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
north of 02N east of 85W, from 08N-15N between 94W-98W, and from 
05N-08N between 113W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 10N-17N between 101W-107W and from 02N-05N between
90W-94W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above for information on 
convection near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Ridging extends from a 1030 mb high at 39N140W southeastward to
17N110W near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between 
the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is producing
fresh NW winds just west of the Baja California peninsula.
Elsewehre winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
Pacific waters and 1-3 ft in Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the trough over the Gulf of California along 
with the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula will 
support fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja California 
through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will persist 
elsewhere through Mon. Looking ahead, NW to N winds will increase
to fresh west of Baja California Mon night through the middle of
next week, as high pressure again strengthens just west of the 
area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See the tropical waves section above for information on 
convection offshore Central America and Colombia.

Except for a small area of fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo
region, the winds across the region are moderate or weaker. Seas
are 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Panama region and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds should occur 
over the Papagayo region Sat night and Sun. Elsewhere winds, are 
moderate or weaker across the Central American and equatorial 
Pacific waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends from a 1030 mb high at 39N140W southeastward to
17N110W near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between 
the ridge and and the monsoon trough to the south is forcing
moderate to fresh NE trades north of 07N west of 125W. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker. A weak 1008 mb low pressure, 
mentioned in the monsoon trough section above, located near 
10N115W, remains disorganized and is not producing any winds 
stronger than moderate speeds. Seas are 7-8 ft in N swell north
of 27N between 120W-137W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft.

The ridge should build north of our area and increase the NE
winds to up a strong breeze tonight and Sat north of 27N west of
132W. Seas in these winds should build to 10 ft. The low is 
expected to drift toward the west before devolving into a trough 
on Sat, if not sooner. An area of low pressure could form by this
weekend several hundred nautical miles south of the S coast of 
Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development of this 
system thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward 
at around 10 kt. Elsewhere across the High Seas, winds should 
remain moderate or weaker. An 8-9 ft S swell should reach across 
our southern border west of 110W tonight through Sun. Elsewhere, 
seas should remain 5-7 ft.

$$ 
Landsea